On Friday morning, the S&P 500 was less than a couple of points from another all-time high. Then, after a single social media post from President Donald Trump, $2 trillion in market value was wiped out.
The unraveling shows the sway the president’s one-man trade policy still has over the fate of the global economy.
Trump at 10:57 a.m. ET wrote on his Truth Social platform that China was “becoming very hostile” with the rest of the world, especially when it comes to its control of rare earth metals. He accused China of holding the world “captive” because of its “monopoly” on these crucial resources.
The key part that the stock market reacted to in the 500-word Trump post was this: “One of the policies that we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America.”
That’s all it took.
Bespoke Investment Group calculates that about $2 trillion in value from the U.S. stock market was erased by that single post. The S&P 500 lost 2.7% as the closing bell rang out at the New York Stock Exchange. It was its worst performance since early April, when the stock market was in the throes of a cascading sell-off from Trump’s so-called liberation day rollout of higher-than-expected duties for every country on the globe.
The Nasdaq Composite, home to the technology companies that rely on trade with China, sank 3.56%, also its worst performance since April. The Nasdaq touched an all-time high before the Trump post in Friday’s session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 879 points, or 1.9% for its worst performance since May. The Russell 2000 small-cap benchmark shed 3%.
Why such a violent drop?
While the Trump administration’s trade talks with China have been progressing at a much slower pace than those with other countries, the stock market consensus was that something would eventually be worked out between the two nations and that overall relations were improving. Trump and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping were set to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit at the end of this month.
The market had also become comfortable with the around 40% tariff rate already applied to China, reasoning that the U.S. economy was stronger than previously thought to withstand it, and exemptions for products made in China — like Apple’s iPhones — were broad enough to soften any economic impact.
If Trump follows through with his latest threat, investors fear that the load may be too great to bear for the U.S. economy, which is still reliant on imported parts to build automobiles, solar panels, and the like.
Perhaps the greater risk that weighs on the market is retaliation from China on U.S. goods that could lead to an all-out trade war.
What sparked Trump’s threat?
China, overnight into Thursday, tightened its grip further on the rare earths market, of which it controls about 70% of the global supply. Beijing said outside entities must obtain licenses to export pretty much anything using its rare earths and that companies using the metals for military applications would be denied. The companies’ usage would be reviewed on a case-by-case basis by China.
Rare earths are crucial for making semiconductors, electric vehicles and materials for advanced missiles. Trump has been trying to bolster the U.S. supplies of the metal by supporting, and even investing in, U.S. and Canada-based companies that mine for the metal.
What led Friday’s sell-off?
Chipmakers such as Nvidia and AMD led the stock market drop Friday. Nvidia, which is still trying to gain support from the two countries to sell a less-advanced AI chip to China, lost 5%. AMD, which had been leading the latest leg of the rally, sank nearly 8%. Apple lost 3%, while Tesla shed 5%.
But it wasn’t just shares of companies directly related to China trade that declined. It was a broad market sell-off, with 424 of the S&P 500 members closing in the red. Pro investors were forced to reduce risk in everything due to a sudden drop of this magnitude. With their tech positions getting hit, other holdings needed to be sold to raise cash. Plus, there’s the threat the potential new tariffs pose to the U.S. economy. Domestic financials Bank of America and Wells Fargo lost more than 2% each, for example.
A few stocks did manage to stay green on the day. Walmart and the tobacco/nicotine stocks were slightly higher because of their defensive properties.
How long will this sell-off last?
Monday could be another rough day for the markets because Trump followed up his morning post after the closing bell by saying he would impose 100% tariffs on China “over and above any tariff that they are currently paying.”
Trump added that the U.S. would put export controls on “any and all critical software,” which could significantly impact AI leaders like Nvidia. The new duties would begin at the start of next month, around the time of the summit when Trump was set to meet with Xi. Trump’s Friday morning post suggested those talks may not happen now.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, a fund that tracks the S&P 500, added a bit to Friday’s session losses after the bell.
Still, some traders and investors believe it may be wise to wait and see if Trump follows through fully on this threat. Most of the stiff tariffs threatened in early April — which sent global markets reeling — were subsequently pared back significantly through negotiations and exemptions, laying the groundwork for a monster comeback rally to new highs for the market. It paid then to call Trump on his bluff and buy the dip — and many investors think it will again.
“The good news is that this may just be another negotiating tactic used by the administration that could yield good results over the long term,” said Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, during the height of the selling pressure at the NYSE. “The knee-jerk sell-off should be another buying opportunity.”
It’s worth having some perspective on Friday’s sell-off as well. The drop only took the S&P 500 back to its lowest level in a month. The benchmark is still up more than 11% for the year, with a seemingly unstoppable AI trade overshadowing any threat from tariffs, global conflicts and an ongoing government shutdown.
The move disrupted an unusually placid period for the stock market, jarring complacent investors into running for cover for the first time in a long while and adding to the pain. Thursday was the 33rd straight day without a 1% S&P 500 move in either direction, the longest calm streak since January 2020. The market hasn’t had a major decline since the April tariff rollout correction.
One risk is that this sell-off breaks other things on Wall Street. There’s a small, but still growing contagion related to the bankruptcy of private auto parts supplier First Brands. It’s roiling banks with exposure like Jefferies Financial Group and raising concerns about the once-booming private credit industry. Jefferies was down 4% on Friday and another 6% in after-hours trading.
That’s an area to watch, along with the possibility that large hedge funds buying on margin were caught too-long on Friday and now have to aggressively deleverage, which could add to selling pressures next week. The crypto markets, especially the smaller coins outside of bitcoin, were hit especially hard on Friday. The TRUMP meme coin is down 20% in the last 24 hours.
Stock market futures open for trading Sunday evening at 6 p.m. ET. The bond market is closed Monday for Columbus Day.
