Author: train2invest Admins

The federal government said its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. vehicles, which it announced last week with no implementation date, would take effect early Wednesday. The move marks an escalation of the Canada-U.S. trade war in the middle of a federal election campaign, and could increase the price of U.S.-made autos by as much as 25 per cent.

The countertariffs are the first imposed by Mark Carney since he became Prime Minister, and the first enacted during Canada’s 45th general election campaign, which ends with voting on April 28. Responding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his repeated talk of making Canada the 51st state has been central to Mr. Carney’s strategy in the campaign, in which his Liberals are polling ahead of their Conservative competition.

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne announced the retaliatory auto tariffs would apply as of 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday. The federal government had promised this response after Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on foreign-made automobiles, including from Canada, but had not yet followed through until Tuesday’s abrupt announcement.

“Canada continues to respond forcefully to all unwarranted and unreasonable tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Canadian products,” Mr. Champagne said in a statement. “The government is firmly committed to getting these U.S. tariffs removed as soon as possible, and will protect Canada’s workers, businesses, economy and industry.”

Canada had already imposed countertariffs on about $60-billion worth of U.S. imports in response to levies enacted by Mr. Trump earlier this year on a broad range of goods, including Canadian steel and aluminum.

A trade dispute involving the North American auto sector will not only cost consumers more, but also threatens to damage the structure of an industry that relies on an integrated supply chain across the United States, Canada and Mexico.

Up to 60 per cent of cars purchased in Canada each year are imported from the United States, according to Flavio Volpe, president of the Auto Parts Manufacturers’ Association. He said Canada is the among the largest export markets for American-made cars, and estimated about 1.2 million vehicles are imported from the United States every year.

The tariffs will be 25 per cent on the portion of each vehicle imported from the U.S. that did not originate in Canada or Mexico, in cases where the manufacturing complies with the rules of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA). It will also be 25 per cent on each fully assembled vehicle imported from the U.S. where the automobile’s manufacturing does not comply with USMCA rules.

These countermeasures will remain in place until the U.S. eliminates its tariffs against the Canadian auto sector, the federal Finance Department said in a statement.

The government said duties collected will be used to benefit the Canadian auto sector. Vehicle imports from the U.S. totalled $35.6-billion in 2024, Finance said. Last week, Mr. Carney estimated these retaliatory tariffs would collect $8-billion on an annual basis.

Mr. Volpe said Canadians could end up paying 15 per cent to 25 per cent more for a vehicle imported from the United States depending on what portion of the automobile is not Canadian or Mexican content.

On April 3, Mr. Trump imposed tariffs of 25 per cent on Canadian automobiles and light trucks and vowed another 25-per-cent tariff on some Canadian auto parts starting May 3. The tariffs on Canadian-made autos will be reduced based on their U.S.-made content. Most of the vehicles assembled at Ontario’s plants have about 50-per-cent U.S. content.

Mr. Volpe said he believes Canada’s retaliation is justified, even though it will increase prices for cars in Canada. “It will hurt,” he said, but he added that the U.S. will feel the pressure too. “It’s important not to leave these things unanswered,” he said of U.S. protectionism.

He noted that Ottawa’s retaliation, at least for now, does not include counter-tariffs on U.S. auto parts.

The caretaker convention guides the federal government after Parliament has been dissolved and an election called. This means government is supposed to limit itself to routine matters or urgent events but generally not take steps that bind a future government.

Brian Clow, who served as deputy chief of staff to then-prime minister Justin Trudeau, defended Mr. Carney’s decision to impose tariffs during an election campaign.

The Prime Minister was responding to new U.S. tariffs imposed on Canada during the campaign, he noted.

“It’s well-established that the Prime Minister and cabinet can act during a crisis, and I would say that this is a clear crisis,” Mr. Clow said.

Vic Fedeli, Ontario’s Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade, was in Washington on Monday and Tuesday, lobbying for an end to all the tariffs imposed on Canadian cars and trucks, steel and aluminum – and for the scrapping of the American plan, set to go into effect May 3, to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on non-U.S. auto parts.

In an interview, Mr. Fedeli said he met with automotive industry representatives from both sides of the border and two Republican members of Congress – New York’s Claudia Tenney and Indiana’s Rudy Yakym. He also met with officials in the office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

He says that in addition to making the case against all of the President’s tariffs on Canada, he is also focusing in the short term on convincing the U.S. to leave Canadian auto parts untouched by additional levies.

Mr. Fedeli says his message to U.S. officials is that this will be far too complicated and too damaging to the auto industry’s integrated supply chains that see some car parts cross the border multiple times.

“Nobody can figure out how to do that. It’s so complicated that what we’ve said to them is ‘Look, leave the parts the way they are.’ This is really our message,” Mr. Fedeli said. “You really can’t delve into trying to unscramble that omelette.”

He said so far, the U.S. officials he has met with seem receptive and understand Ontario’s point of view.

Echoing Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s comments last week, Mr. Fedeli said he supported Mr. Carney’s move to impose retaliatory 25-per-cent tariffs on the non-Canadian portion of U.S.-made cars and trucks.

“The people of Canada expect that. We did that last time, in Trump 1.0, we put reciprocal tariffs, we fought back,” Mr. Fedeli said. “And I think they’re a step in the right direction, of course.”

North American stock markets were sinking again in early trading on Wednesday after massive U.S. tariffs against China kicked in overnight, followed by China retaliating with a huge tariff increase on U.S. imports. Oil prices tumbled to their lowest level in more than four years and a huge sell-off in U.S. Treasuries sent bond yields soaring.

Canada’s main stock index opened lower on Wednesday, with energy stocks leading the losses.

At 9:31 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was down 0.7% at 22,361.22 points.

TSX Composite Index

22,506.90-1,873.81 (-7.69%)

Past month

March 10

24,380.71

April 8

22,506.90

SOURCE: BARCHART

In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 257.7 points, or 0.68%, at the open to 37,387.91. The S&P 500 fell 17.5 points, or 0.35%, at the open to 4,965.28, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 27.5 points, or 0.18%, to 15,295.441 at the opening bell. (

In contrast to the rest of the world, markets in China reversed toward small gains Wednesday after that country responded with an 84% tariff on U.S. goods, in retaliation for U.S. President Donald Trump’s 104% tariffs on the world’s second-largest economy that went into effect at midnight Wednesday.

Beijing also added an array of countermeasures after Trump’s massive tariffs on China kicked in.

“If the U.S. insists on further escalating its economic and trade restrictions, China has the firm will and abundant means to take necessary countermeasures and fight to the end,” the Ministry of Commerce wrote in a statement introducing its white paper on trade with the U.S.

Massive share buybacks by big state-run investment funds and other state companies that often are instructed to support Chinese markets in times of crisis helped boost stock prices.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.7%, while the Shanghai Composite index closed 1.3% higher.

Prices for U.S. crude oil skidded more than 5% to $56.38 per barrel, their lowest level since the February of 2021 when the U.S. and global economies were still emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. Rapidly falling oil prices often signal investor pessimism about economic growth and can signal a recession ahead.

Brent crude, the European standard, gave back $3.29 to $59.53 per barrel.

A sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries compounded the gloom around Trump’s tariffs and the damage they’re expected to cause the global economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury — normally considered a safe haven during volatile equity markets — jumped 17 basis points to 4.44% early Wednesday.

Delta Air Lines pulled its guidance for 2025 Wednesday as the trade war scrambles expectations for business and household spending and depresses bookings across the travel sector.

“With broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled,” CEO Ed Bastian said in a statement on Wednesday. “In this slower-growth environment, we are protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what we can control.”

The airline’s profit for the most recent quarter came in better than Wall Street expected, sending Delta shares up 4.7% in early trading.

The airline sector has been battered this year as investors, anticipating rising tariffs, put their money elsewhere. Shares are down 41% this year for the nation’s most profitable airline, which is better than rivals American and United.

Shares of pharmaceutical companies were also hit hard after Trump said Tuesday night that he plans tariffs on pharmaceuticals so that more medications would be made in the U.S.

Pfizer and Merck each lost more than 2.5%. Most other big drugmakers were also down, including Johnson & Johnson, Bristol Myers Squib and Eli Lilly.

The escalating global trade war — particularly between the U.S. and China — has sent markets careening this year with uncertainty about how the global economy would hold up to America’s new isolationist trade policy.

Analysts predict that markets will have more swings up and down given uncertainty over how long Trump will keep the stiff tariffs on imports, which will raise prices for U.S. shoppers and slow the economy. If they persist, economists and investors expect them to cause a recession. If Trump lowers them through negotiations relatively quickly, the worst-case scenario might be avoided.

Hope still remains on Wall Street that negotiations may be possible, which helped drive the morning’s rally. Trump said Tuesday that a conversation with South Korea’s acting president helped them reach the “confines and probability of a great DEAL for both countries.”

Trump’s trade war is an attack on the globalization that’s shaped the world’s economy and helped bring down prices for products on store shelves but also caused manufacturing jobs to leave for other countries. Trump has said he wants to narrow trade deficits, which measure how much more the United States imports from other countries than it sends to them as exports.

Markets in Europe also extended their losses, with Germany’s DAX sliding 4.1%. In Paris, the CAC 40 declined 3.9% and Britain’s FTSE 100 gave up 3.8%.

Elsewhere, markets remained gloomy. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 3.9% lower, at 31,714.03 and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba convened a meeting of top financial ministers to reiterate his call for them to do what they can to mitigate the damage from tariffs to Japanese auto makers and other manufacturers.

Taiwan led the losses in Asia, as its Taiex plunged 5.8%. Big Tech industries were among the biggest decliners. Computer chip giant TSMC Corp. dropped 3.8% while iPhone maker Hon Hai Precision Industry plunged 10%.

In India, the Sensex declined 0.5% as the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate, while Bangkok’s SET shed 0.8%.

South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.7% to 2,293.70, and the government said it would provide help for its beleaguered auto makers. The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia declined 1.8% to 7,375.00. Shares in New Zealand also fell.

The Associated Press and Reuters

Monday April 7

China foreign reserves

Japan real cash earnings

Euro zone retail sales

(10:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations for Q1.

(3 p.m. ET) U.S. consumer credit for February.

Earnings include: Levi Strauss & Co.

—

Tuesday April 8

China aggregate yuan financing and new yuan loans

(6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for March.

(10 a.m. ET) Canada’s Ivey PMI for March.

Earnings include: AGF Management Ltd.; Tilray Inc.; Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.

—

Wednesday April 9

Japan consumer confidence index and machine tool orders

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale trade for February.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed minutes for March 19 release are released.

Earnings include: Cogeco Inc.; Cogeco Communications Inc.; Delta Air Lines Inc.

—

Thursday April 10

China CPI and PPI

Japan bank lending

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for February. Estimate is a decline of 1.5 per cent month-over-month.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of April 5.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for March. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.1 per cent from February (versus a gain of 0.2 per cent in the previous month) and up 2.6 per cent year-over-year.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Treasury budget for March.

Earnings include: Progressive Corp.

—

Friday April 11

Germany CPI

UK GDP, trade deficit, industrial production and manufacturing production

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI for March. The consensus is a month-over-month gain of 0.2 per cent and up 3.1 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April (preliminary reading).

Earnings include: Bank of NY Mellon; BlackRock Inc.; JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Morgan Stanley; Wells Fargo & Co .

Context: U.S. Tariffs and Loblaw’s Exposure (April 2025)

In early 2025, trade tensions flared as the U.S. imposed new tariffs on imports from Canada, prompting Ottawa to retaliate with tariffs on a broad range of U.S. goods​

bnnbloomberg.ca. As Canada’s largest grocer, Loblaw Companies Limited (TSX: L) faced questions about how these tariffs would affect its business. Notably, Loblaw has relatively limited direct exposure to U.S. imports – less than 10% of its supply comes from the U.S., mainly fresh produce​

bnnbloomberg.ca. CEO Per Bank acknowledged that “if tariffs are applied on produce, there’s where we will be mostly impacted”​

bnnbloomberg.ca. In other words, the most direct impact of U.S. tariffs for Loblaw is higher costs on imported fruits and vegetables, especially important during Canada’s winter when produce imports rise​

bnnbloomberg.ca​

bnnbloomberg.ca. Beyond produce, most of Loblaw’s grocery inventory is domestically sourced or from non-U.S. suppliers, which buffers the company from direct tariff pain.

Channels of impact on Loblaw’s business include:

• Supply Chain Costs: Tariffs make certain imported products (like U.S. produce) more expensive, raising Loblaw’s input costs. The company warned that tariffs “will eventually impact prices for certain products we sell – and that could come within a week or two for some items, such as fresh produce”​bnnbloomberg.ca. In other categories, price increases may take ~6 weeks to appear as existing pre-tariff inventory is sold through​bnnbloomberg.ca. Loblaw’s management has been clear that once cheaper inventory is depleted, replacement stock will reflect the tariff-inflated costs, likely meaning higher shelf prices for shoppers.
• Consumer Behavior: The trade war has spurred a “buy Canadian” sentiment among shoppers. Loblaw has capitalized on this by highlighting domestic products in its stores. The company even added a new “swap and shop” feature to its loyalty app to help customers find Canadian-made alternatives for imported goods​moneysense.ca. These efforts are “paying off,” with the grocer seeing a “significant uplift in sales of products identified as prepared in Canada,” according to CEO Per Bank​moneysense.ca. In other words, tariff fears are indirectly boosting sales of Canadian goods at Loblaw, as patriotic and value-conscious consumers shift away from pricier imports. Some analysts have noted that Canadian grocers like Loblaw could even gain market share if consumers shy away from U.S.-based retailers (like Walmart or Costco) in favor of domestic chains during the trade conflict​moneysense.ca.
• Operational Costs (Indirect): The tariff battle is exerting broader economic pressures that affect Loblaw. A key factor is currency: a trade war tends to weaken the Canadian dollar, which “will likely be inflationary” for food prices since many commodities (and winter produce) are priced in USD​bnnbloomberg.ca​ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com. Loblaw has noted that even products made in Canada could see cost increases “if any of their ingredients are sourced from the U.S., while changing commodity prices and the weak Canadian dollar are also factors” driving up costs​bnnbloomberg.ca. Thus, U.S. tariffs indirectly raise Loblaw’s cost of goods via currency effects and global commodity inflation, not just the tariffed items alone. Moreover, economists project the trade dispute could dampen Canada’s GDP growth and employment, which might make consumers more price-sensitive​ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com​ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com. In a softer economy, shoppers tend to trade down to discount stores and private labels – a trend that actually plays to Loblaw’s strengths in the discount segment.

Company Response and Statements

A shopper browses a Loblaw-owned No Frills discount grocery store. Loblaw is actively leveraging its discount banners and Canadian sourcing to shield consumers from tariff effects.

Loblaw’s management has been proactive in addressing tariff impacts both internally and in customer-facing ways. Company executives have emphasized plans to mitigate the effect of tariffs on shoppers and suppliers:

• Faster Supplier Price Reviews: Anticipating cost increases, Loblaw alerted its suppliers that it would accelerate the processing of price increase requests​bnnbloomberg.ca. Normally, the grocer might take up to 12 weeks to review vendor price changes, but it cut that timeline in half to help suppliers manage rising costs due to tariffs​bnnbloomberg.ca. “The goal was to outline steps we can take mutually to navigate potential challenges… in light of the proposed tariffs,” said Loblaw spokeswoman Catherine Thomas, adding that the company will “do everything it can to reduce the impact of tariffs on customers.”​bnnbloomberg.ca. This suggests Loblaw is working closely with suppliers so that necessary cost increases (from tariffs) are handled efficiently, ensuring store shelves remain stocked even if input prices climb.
• Sourcing and Inventory Strategies: To blunt the direct hit of tariffs, Loblaw is leaning more on domestic and alternative sources. The company has been “looking for new ways to secure as much food as possible that is grown, made, or prepared in Canada,” CEO Per Bank said​retail-insider.com. In 2025 Loblaw onboarded dozens of new Canadian suppliers to replace U.S. imports where possible​retail-insider.com. For products that must still come from the U.S., Loblaw built up inventory ahead of the tariffs. “We have inventory of U.S. products in our distribution centres, purchased before the tariffs… that means many products will not be impacted until we sell what we already have on hand,” Per Bank explained​bnnbloomberg.ca. This stockpiling buys Loblaw a bit of time before price hikes hit consumers. The company is also exploring overseas suppliers for certain fruits, vegetables, and specialty goods to diversify its supply chain​retail-insider.com, aiming to find “comparable quality and price” from non-U.S. sources to avoid drastic price jumps. However, Loblaw acknowledges some reliance on U.S. produce, especially in winter, will remain hard to fully replace​bnnbloomberg.ca.
• Pricing Transparency and Branding: Perhaps Loblaw’s most public-facing response is its decision to flag tariff-related price increases in-store. In March 2025, Loblaw announced it will put a special “tariff” symbol (a letter T inside a triangle) on shelf price tags of products that became more expensive due to the trade war​bnnbloomberg.ca​bnnbloomberg.ca. This symbol lets shoppers know which products are sourced from the U.S. and are increasing in price because of tariffs​bnnbloomberg.ca. Per Bank assured customers that “when tariffs come off, any tariff pricing changes will be entirely removed”​bnnbloomberg.ca. In tandem, Loblaw is adding maple leaf symbols to highlight products “prepared in Canada”​bnnbloomberg.ca. By clearly labeling Canadian-made items (and making them easy to find through apps and signage), Loblaw is encouraging consumers to switch to domestic alternatives. This approach serves two purposes: it maintains customer trust (by being transparent that tariffs – not greed – are driving certain price hikes) and it potentially shifts demand toward non-tariffed, Canadian goods. In essence, Loblaw is using the tariff situation to promote its private labels and local products, which could soften any hit to sales volumes on imported goods.
• Public and Government Engagement: Loblaw’s CEO and executives have been vocal in the public discourse on tariffs. Per Bank took to LinkedIn to calm shoppers, saying Canadians “shouldn’t expect to see prices in stores rise right away” due to existing inventories​bnnbloomberg.ca. The company has also been in dialogue with policymakers – urging the Canadian government to consider exemptions for essential grocery items in its counter-tariffs​retail-insider.com. By advocating for relief on key food imports, Loblaw hopes to shield consumers (and itself) from the worst of the price shocks, aligning itself with customers’ interests amid the trade turmoil.

Share Price Movements and Market Sentiment

Loblaw’s share price has been on a strong upswing in 2025, with tariff developments playing a paradoxical role. After a brief dip in February (when Loblaw’s quarterly profit was hit by a one-time loyalty program charge, unrelated to tariffs​

moneysense.ca), the stock rebounded sharply. By the end of March 2025, Loblaw (L.TO) was making new highs around the C$200+ level​

marketbeat.com. In fact, on March 31, the stock reached a 52-week high of about C$203​

marketbeat.com. This momentum only accelerated as the U.S.-Canada tariff clash escalated: on April 3, 2025 – a day when trade war fears sent the broader TSX index down nearly 4% – Loblaw’s stock surged to a fresh record high​

reuters.com​

reuters.com. Investor money rotated defensively into consumer staples, making that the only sector in Toronto to finish up on April 3. Loblaw, as a supermarket heavyweight, “moved to a fresh record high” even as most other stocks plunged​

reuters.com. (On that day, shares traded above C$210 intraday, an all-time high, before closing around C$209.​

reuters.com) This contrasting performance highlights investor sentiment: markets view Loblaw as a relative safe haven amid tariff turmoil, expecting that people will keep buying groceries regardless of economic headwinds. In other words, tariffs that hurt manufacturers or tech firms may actually benefit Loblaw’s stock in the short run, as investors seek the stability of food retail.

Analyst commentary supports this optimistic view. Many equity analysts have maintained “Buy” or overweight ratings on Loblaw, citing its limited U.S. import exposure and its ability to pass on costs. As of early 2025, the consensus analyst price target for L.TO was roughly C$199 (just below the then-market price) with a “Moderate Buy” rating on the stock​

marketbeat.com. RBC Capital Markets, for example, reiterated Loblaw as a top pick in the consumer sector, calling it “well-positioned” in a tariff environment due to its value-focused offerings​

ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com. RBC’s research noted that grocery retailers typically source over 20% of their sales in produce (often priced in USD), so a weaker Canadian dollar from tariffs will push food inflation higher​

ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com. However, Loblaw is seen as best equipped to handle this: it has the highest penetration of discount banners and private-label products among Canadian grocers, which means it can capture budget-conscious shoppers trading down and protect its profit margins​

ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com. “Already value-focused consumers are likely to continue to favour discount channels… Loblaw enjoys the highest exposure to discount/private label,” RBC analysts wrote​

ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com. In practice, this means Loblaw can pass through higher costs to customers (via modest price increases) while actually gaining customer traffic in its discount stores (No Frills) and increasing sales of its cheaper in-house brands. This dynamic is bullish for Loblaw’s earnings resilience. Other analysts have similarly pointed out that Loblaw and its domestic peers could absorb some frustrated shoppers who might otherwise shop in U.S.-based stores – a shift driven both by patriotism and price dynamics in a tariff-laden market​

moneysense.ca.

Investor sentiment, overall, has been positive on Loblaw amid the trade dispute. Despite concerns about general consumer inflation, investors appear confident that Loblaw can manage tariff impacts without severe damage to its bottom line. The company’s forthright communication about tariffs (such as the “T” symbols and assurances to roll back prices when possible) may have further bolstered confidence, showing that Loblaw is on top of the issue. It’s worth noting that grocery chains have a history of weathering cost inflation by adjusting prices, and 2025’s situation seems no different – analysts widely expect grocers to pass on most tariff-related costs to consumers​

bnnbloomberg.ca​

ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com. In the stock market, Loblaw is benefiting from this expectation. Its shares have significantly outperformed more tariff-exposed sectors (like technology or industrials) in the first half of 2025, reflecting a defensive “risk-off” trade by investors​

reuters.com​

reuters.com.

Conclusion: Direct and Indirect Effects

In summary, the current U.S. tariffs are affecting Loblaw indirectly more than directly. Direct exposure (e.g. higher costs on U.S. produce imports) is real but relatively small in scope, given Loblaw’s predominantly Canadian supply chain​

bnnbloomberg.ca. Indirectly, however, the tariffs are reshaping Loblaw’s operating environment: from nudging consumer behavior (greater demand for Canadian goods) to influencing currency and inflation trends that impact input costs​

bnnbloomberg.ca. Loblaw’s management has responded assertively – securing alternate supplies, transparently tagging tariff-affected prices, and fast-tracking supplier pricing support​

bnnbloomberg.ca​

bnnbloomberg.ca – all aimed at defending its customer base and margins. So far, the strategy appears effective: Loblaw is turning the tariff challenge into an opportunity to promote its discount and private-label strength, and investors have rewarded the company with a rising share price. The stock’s recent record highs amid a trade-war-rattled market underscore that investors see Loblaw as insulated from, or even advantaged by, the tariff situation​

reuters.com. Going forward, stakeholders will be watching how sustained tariff pressures play out – whether grocery price inflation will hit volumes, or if Loblaw can continue balancing higher costs with savvy merchandising. For now, Loblaw’s positioning as a defensive, Canada-first retailer has helped it navigate the tariff turbulence with strong investor confidence and relatively minimal damage to its business fundamentals.

Rogers Communications Inc. RCI-B-T +1.06%increase has struck a definitive agreement to sell a minority stake in its wireless infrastructure for $7-billion to a consortium led by New York-based Blackstone Inc. that also includes four of the country’s largest pension plans.

Last October, Rogers announced it planned to raise money and repay debt by selling a portion of its wireless backhaul business to an institutional investor, but did not disclose the investor’s identity.

On Friday, the Toronto-based company spelled out the details of the transaction, an innovative financing for a Canadian company that is expected to pave the way for further infrastructure sales at debt-heavy domestic telecom platforms.

Rogers is selling a 49.9-per-cent equity interest in its wireless unit to the Blackstone consortium, which also includes the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, the Public Sector Pension Investment Board and British Columbia Investment Management Corp., four of the country’s largest pension funds.

The Blackstone consortium will only hold a 20-per-cent voting interest in the new business, while Rogers will own 50.1-per-cent of the equity and an 80-per-cent voting interest.

“This transaction will strengthen the company’s investment grade balance sheet by reducing our borrowings and unlocking the unrecognized value of critical assets,” said Glenn Brandt, Rogers’ chief financial officer, in a press release. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2025.

The news was received positively by analysts Friday morning.

“We are encouraged to see a deal structure that on the surface seems to tick all of the boxes with respect to size, cost and impact,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a Friday morning note to investors.

In another note, Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi estimated the deal will reduce Rogers’ debt to EBITDA ratio by approximately 0.7 times. At the end of last year, Rogers debt was 4.5 times its EBITDA.

“All in, we expect the stock to react positively today as leverage is reduced with minimal negative impact on free cash flow,” he said.

Rogers took on debt to acquire rival Shaw Communications Inc. for $20-billion in 2023 and plans to spend $4.7-billion this year to acquire BCE Inc.’s stake in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment.

Blackstone, one of the world’s largest private equity funds with more than US$1-trillion in assets under management, is a significant investor in Canadian infrastructure and real estate and plans to continue committing capital to the country as a trade war plays out between the two intertwined North American economies.

“Canada is a hugely important market for investment at Blackstone and that has not changed,” said president Jon Gray in a recent interview with The Globe and Mail. “Obviously you have to be mindful of export-oriented businesses, but we are actively looking at a range of opportunities in the country today.”

Blackstone co-founder and chief executive officer Stephen Schwarzman openly backed U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2020 election campaign and is a significant donor to the Republican party and its leader.

The federal government hiked scrutiny of cross-border transactions last month in the wake of Mr. Trump’s decision to launch a trade war and campaign for an economic union that would make Canada the 51st state.

The structure of the Rogers transaction, with significant Canadian content, is meant in part to deal with regulatory concerns regarding control of telecom infrastructure.

Telus Corp. is using a similar structure to attempt to sell a 49-per-cent stake in its cell phone tower business, according to a pitch book on the potential transaction distributed by TD Securities, Telus’s financial adviser.

The transaction announced on Friday gives Rogers the right to repurchase the Blackstone consortium’s interest at any time between the 8th and 12th anniversaries of the deal’s closing.

Once launched, the wireless business is expected to pay the Blackstone consortium approximately $400-million annually for the next five years.

Mr. Yaghi estimated that, after accounting for cash taxes and potential interest savings tied to the debt repayment from the transaction, that figure drops to around $260-million to $280-million. On a net basis, this implies a maximum annual cash outlay of about $150-million over that period, he said.

Rogers said the Blackstone consortium’s investment is expected to be treated as equity by credit rating agencies Moody’s Investors Services, Inc., S&P Global Inc., and DBRS Ltd. Mr. Brandt said: “With this transaction, Rogers will have issued an aggregate $9-billion of equity-valued capital since year-end which is expected to reduce leverage by almost 1 turn.”

Rogers wireless infrastructure is an asset the company has pledged as security to lenders. On Friday, Rogers said as part of the sale to the Blackstone consortium, it would seek consent for amendments to the terms of its debt from the holders of its outstanding senior notes.

Gold prices fell further from recent record highs on Friday despite a number of positive catalysts.

Spot gold fell 0.7 percent to $3,092.92 per ounce in early European trade after hitting a record high in early April. U.S. gold futures were down 0.2 percent at $3,114.31.

Selling pressure in gold could be primarily due to profit booking after a significant run over the last 12 months. Bullion is up nearly 35 percent over the last year.

The recent surge was driven by tariff concerns, geopolitical risks, declining U.S. dollar, and growing inflation forecasts.

According to UBS, the latest tariff measures unveiled by U.S. President Trump may knock down U.S. economic growth by 2 percentage points this year and raise inflation close to 5 percent.

A U.S.-based analyst from Morningstar has forecast a 38 percent decline in gold prices in the coming years, despite an uncertain economic environment.

On the contrary, some financial institutions remain optimistic about bullion’s future. Bank of America has predicted that gold could rise to $3,500 per ounce in the next two years. Goldman Sachs expects a year-end price of $3,300 per ounce.

As growth worries mount, there is now increased speculation that the Federal Reserve could accelerate interest rates to make it easier for U.S. companies and households to borrow and spend.

The release of the monthly U.S. jobs report as well as remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may influence trading later in the day.

Oil prices were down around 4 percent on Friday, and were on track for their worst week in months on concerns about a global recession that could weigh on oil demand.

Benchmark Brent crude futures tumbled 3.6 percent to $67.63 in early European trade while WTI crude futures were down 3.8 percent at $4.38.

Both contracts declined more than 6 percent on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced significantly harsher-than-expected tariffs.

According to UBS, the latest tariff measures unveiled by Trump may knock down U.S. economic growth by 2 percentage points this year and raise inflation close to 5 percent.

JPMorgan has raised the probability of a global recession this year to 60 percent, from a previous 40 percent.

Adding to investor anxiety, OPEC+ unexpectedly increased the supply by three times the planned amount in May.

A statement from OPEC said Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman have agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May.

The oil cartel noted the increase in production comprises the increment originally planned for May in addition to two monthly increments.

Goldman Sachs has significantly lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing OPEC+’s increased production and the potential for a global recession.

• Nonfarm payrolls in March increased 228,000 for the month, up from the revised 117,000 in February and better than the Dow Jones estimate for 140,000.
• Health care was the leading growth area, consistent with prior months. The industry added 54,000 jobs, almost exactly in line with its 12-month average.
• Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% on the month, in line with the forecast, while the annual rate of 3.8%, the lowest level since July 2024.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/jobs-report-march-2025-.html