New study lists Asian countries that will be hit hardest — and least — by the Ukraine war

From food prices to tourism and weapons supply, Asia-Pacific countries could be hit hard by the Russia-Ukraine war, even if they are not directly exposed to the conflict, according to a new Economic Intelligence Unit report.

Food prices are particularly sensitive to the war as both countries are significant commodity producers, according to the research firm. Some Asian countries rely on commodities such as fertilizer from Russia, and a global shortage is already driving up prices of agriculture and grains.

Given the region’s relatively high levels of dependence on energy and agricultural commodity imports – even if countries don’t source directly from Russia or Ukraine, the spike in prices will be concerning, warned the EIU.

“Niche dependencies include reliance on Russia and Ukraine as a source of fertiliser and grain in South-east and South Asia, which could cause disruption in the agricultural sector,” said the firm.

The world’s major powers have hit Russia with wide-ranging sanctions over Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on energy, while the U.K. plans to do so by the end of the year. The European Union is also considering whether to do the same.There will be export benefits for some countries from higher commodity prices and a global search for alternative supply.Economic Intelligence Unit

Sanctions have also been slapped on the country’s oligarchs, banks, state enterprises, and sovereign bonds.

“North-east Asia — home to the world’s leading chipmakers — also has some exposure to any disruption in the supply of rare gases used in semiconductor production,” EIU said in its report.

Other areas that may be impacted include Russian tourists preferring to stay away, as well as some Asia-Pacific countries that may be cut off from Russian weapons.

Winners and losers from commodity spikes

Global prices for oil, gas and grains have already spiked since the war started in late February.

Russia and Ukraine contribute a significant percentage of the world’s supply for some of those commodities.

Wheat futures pared some gains from the initial spike, but are still up 65% compared to a year ago. Corn futures are up over 40% in the same period.

Some countries will be vulnerable to the price surge, but others may benefit.

“There will be export benefits for some countries from higher commodity prices and a global search for alternative supply,” said EIU.WATCH NOWVIDEO03:53The global shortage of fertilizer is a huge problem, says CF Industries Holdings CEO

Besides food and energy, nickel supply has also been hit as Russia is the world’s third-largest supplier of nickel.

Countries that will benefit from higher commodity prices:

• Coal exporters: Australia, Indonesia, Mongolia
• Crude oil exporters: Malaysia, Brunei
• Liquefied natural gas: Australia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea
• Nickel suppliers: Indonesia, New Caledonia
• Wheat suppliers: Australia, India

Countries most vulnerable to rising prices (imports from Russia/Ukraine as a percentage of 2020 world imports):

• Fertilizer: Indonesia (more than 15%), Vietnam (more than 10%), Thailand (more than 10%), Malaysia (about 10%), India (more than 6%), Bangladesh (nearly 5%), Myanmar (about 3%), Sri Lanka (about 2%)
• Cereals from Russia: Pakistan (about 40%), Sri Lanka (more than 30%), Bangladesh (more than 20%), Vietnam (nearly 10%), Thailand (about 5%), Philippines (about 5%), Indonesia (less than 5%), Myanmar (less than 5%), Malaysia (less than 5%)
• Cereals from Ukraine: Pakistan (nearly 40%), Indonesia (more than 20%), Bangladesh (nearly 20%), Thailand (more than 10%), Myanmar (more than 10%), Sri Lanka (nearly 10%), Vietnam (less than 5%), Philippines (about 5%), Malaysia (about 5%)

Russian arms

Russia is the world’s second largest arms supplier. It has been a major source of weaponry for China, India and Vietnam over the past two decades, the EIU pointed out.

“International sanctions on Russian defence firms will impede the future access of Asian countries to these arms,” the research firm said.

However, that will also create new opportunities for manufacturers from other countries, as well as domestic producers, the report said.WATCH NOWVIDEO03:22If the Russians get bogged down, Putin will use chemical weapons, says Col. Jack Jacobs

Countries most dependent on Russian arms imports from 2000-2020, ranked by share of total imports

• Mongolia (about 100%), Vietnam (more than 80%), China (nearly 80%), India (more than 60%), Laos (more than 40%), Myanmar (about 40%), Malaysia (more than 20%), Indonesia (more than 10%), Bangladesh (more than 10%), Nepal (more than 10%), Pakistan (less than 10%)

Loss of Russian tourists

While Asia’s air routes are still open to Russian airlines, tourists from the country may not visit, the EIU pointed out.

“Tourism is the main potential exposure within services trade, and with Asian air routes still open to Russian airlines, unlike those in Europe, such trade could continue (and potentially expand),” the research firm said.

“However, the willingness of Russians to travel will probably be affected by economic disruption, rouble depreciation and the withdrawal of international payment services from Russia,” it added.

Several Russian banks have also been cut out of SWIFT, a global system connecting more than 11,000 member banks in some 200 countries and territories globally.WATCH NOWVIDEO09:50How Russian banks got cut out of global finance: A ‘SWIFT’ system explainer

Meanwhile, the ruble initially dived nearly 30% against the dollar as the war began. Since then, the currency has bounced back but was last trading about 10% lower than the start of the year, hurting the wallets of ordinary Russians.

However, the reliance on Russian tourists is still low in Asia.

Thailand was the largest beneficiary in the region in 2019, receiving 1.4 million Russian visitors, according to the EIU. Still, that accounted for only less than 4% of its total arrivals that year. Vietnam was second, while Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Maldives round up the top five Asian destinations for Russian tourists.

“Without the conflict, however, Russian tourism could have increased in importance, given ongoing curbs on outgoing Chinese travellers,” said the EIU

Rising mortgage rates are clobbering home building stocks. Now may be the time to buy

Few sectors of the stock market have been hit as badly as U.S. home builders this year, as investors worry that rising interest rates will clobber demand for new homes.

The stocks are worth a closer look, though, if you can handle some ugly numbers: D.R. Horton Inc. DHI-N +0.63%increase, Toll Brothers Inc. TOL-N +0.20%increase, Lennar Corp. LEN-N +0.33%increase and PulteGroup Inc. PHM-N +1.04%increase have tumbled an average of more than 30 per cent in 2022.

There’s no mystery behind the dramatic downturn. With inflation bubbling at multidecade highs, bond yields have soared. That has pushed up mortgage rates and raised concerns about housing affordability.

This week’s release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting in March added to the concerns, revealing that Fed officials have been considering aggressive rate hikes of half a percentage point each.

“Barring some really bad economic news in coming weeks, or miraculously good inflation news, the Fed looks to ramp up its tightening cycle,” Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note this week.

For home builders, which have been coasting on low mortgage rates, the backdrop is challenging. But is the stock market overreacting?

By most accounts, the U.S. housing market is on solid ground. Even as 30-year mortgage rates climbed to 4.9 per cent in March – the highest level since 2018 – the number of mortgage applications actually nudged higher.

Matthew Pointon, senior property economist at Capital Economics, expects that mortgage rates shy of 6 per cent will support mortgage applications.

Housing starts, which measurehome-building activity, are also strong. In February, starts rose to nearly 1.77 million at an annualized pace, an increase of 6.8 per cent from January, and their highest level since 2006.

While confidence among home builders, as measured by the National Association of Home Builders, has declined for four straight months, the level of confidence remains strong. The latest reading is higher than it was in 2019, before the pandemic.

The deep sell-off in home-building stocks this year, then, reflects a sharp deterioration in the housing market that hasn’t happened yet – and might not happen for years.

That leaves a compelling bullish case that rests on strong housing demand, reasonable affordability and cheap stocks.

Daniel Oppenheim, an analyst at Credit Suisse, said in a report this week that the U.S. housing market has been defined by a supply deficit over the past seven years, meaning construction hasn’t been keeping up with demand.

He expects the deficit will remain wide through at least 2025, even with annual housing starts averaging 1.5 million.

Affordability isn’t a problem, either. While monthly mortgage payments as a percentage of household income have risen to 21 per cent, the ratio is not in worrisome territory, Mr. Oppenheim said. The historical average is 17 per cent, and the ratio climbed above 35 per cent during the last boom.

And the cost to rent a home is roughly balanced with the cost to own a home, despite rising home prices.

“This is a key positive and a sharp contrast from the 2004-06 housing boom, when the wide gap between the cost of owning and renting pointed to froth in the for-sale market,” Mr. Oppenheim said in his note.

As for stock valuations, a number of analysts are arguing that the sell-off has left them too cheap to ignore.

Susan Maklari, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, estimated that stocks in the sector trade at about their tangible book value, a substantial discount to the historical average of 1.5 times book value.

In late February, Bank of America analyst Rafe Jadrosich upgraded his recommendations on Toll Brothers and PulteGroup to “buy” after the stocks fell at the start of the year.

“In our year-ahead report, we noted that homebuilders stocks could face a challenging setup with rising interest rates. But valuations are now trading at the low-end of the historical range and the spike in mortgage rates is now already well known to investors,” Mr. Jadrosich said in his note.

The stocks have fallen further since the upgrade, highlighting the risk of buying too soon. But it could make the rebound sweeter if the housing market survives rising rates.

“We continue to see ample evidence from the field that current buyers remain deeply committed to purchasing a home and also have the financial flexibility to adjust to higher rates,” Buck Horne, an analyst at Raymond James, said in a recent note.

Canadian dollar gains as jobs data underpins 50 basis point rate hike bets

The Canadian dollar CADUSD +0.14%increase pared its weekly decline against the greenback on Friday and bond yields climbed to multi-year highs as domestic data showing a record low jobless rate supported expectations for an upsized interest rate by the Bank of Canada.

Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in March, highlighting the tightening of the country’s labor market, with the economy adding 72,500 jobs.

“To keep the job creation machine going is a strong plus,” said Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, adding that he expects the Bank of Canada to hike by a half-percentage-point at a policy decision next Wednesday.

Money markets see a 90% chance of a 50 basis points move next week, up from 70% at the beginning of April. It would be the first hike of that magnitude since May 2000, with the central bank usually moving in quarter-percentage-point increments.

Also supportive of the loonie, the price of oil settled 2.3% higher at $98.26 a barrel. Oil is one of Canada’s major exports.

The Canadian dollar was trading 0.1% higher at 1.2580 to the greenback, or 79.49 U.S. cents, recovering after it touched its weakest intraday level since March 22 at 1.2619.

For the week, the currency was down 0.5%, losing ground after posting on Tuesday its strongest intraday level in nearly five months at 1.24.

The weekly decline came as the U.S. dollar index strengthened to 100 for the first time in nearly two years, supported by the prospect of a more aggressive pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

Canadian government bond yields moved higher across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year

touched its highest since January 2014 at 2.647% before dipping slightly to 2.639%, up 6.4 basis points on the day.

Government of Canada releases Budget 2022

Federal budget 2022: Here are the highlights | CBC News

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has tabled her second federal budget. Here are the highlights:

HOME-BUYING HELP

The budget promises to introduce tax-free savings accounts that would give first-time home buyers the chance to save up to $40,000. Contributions would be tax-deductible and withdrawals to buy a first home would not be taxed. The program is expected to provide $725 million in support over five years.

AFFORDABLE HOUSING

The government is launching a new housing accelerator fund — worth $4 billion over five years — to help municipalities speed up housing development. The goal is to create 100,000 new housing units in the next five years. The budget also extends the rapid housing initiative, pledging $1.5 billion over two years to create at least 6,000 new housing units to help tackle homelessness.

DENTAL CARE

Moving on a commitment in its confidence and supply agreement with the NDP, the government is promising $5.3 billion over five years and $1.7 billion each year thereafter for a national dental care program. It will begin this year with children under 12 years old and expand to cover Canadians under 18 years old, seniors and people with disabilities in 2023. The program, which is to be fully implemented by 2025, is limited to families with incomes of less than $90,000 a year. For those with an income of less than $70,000, no co-payments will be required.

DEFENCE AND SECURITY 

The budget boosts defence spending by $8 billion over five years, bringing Canada’s defence budget to a projected 1.5 per cent of GDP. That falls short of the two per cent of GDP NATO has called on member nations to spend — especially since Russia’s war on Ukraine began — but the $8 billion includes $500 million in military aid to Ukraine. The budget also earmarks $875 million over five years to combat rising threats to cybersecurity, and $100 million over six years to strengthen leadership in the Canadian Armed Forces, modernize the military justice system and implement culture change in the CAF.

ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

To help meet Canada’s climate change targets, the budget offers $2.6 billion over five years to finance a new investment tax credit for businesses that spend money on carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). The government also plans to extend incentives and expand eligibility for a program to entice more Canadians to buy electric cars, vans, trucks and SUVs, which will cost $1.7 billion over five years. The government also plans to impose a sales mandate to ensure that at least 20 per cent of new light-duty vehicle sales will be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2026; that market share is supposed to rise to at least 60 per cent by 2030 and 100 per cent by 2035. The budget also commits $3.8B to launch Canada’s first strategy to develop exploitation of critical minerals used in everything from phones to airplanes.

INDIGENOUS RECONCILIATION

The budget promises to spend an additional $11 billion over six years to support Indigenous children, families and communities, including $4 billion for housing and another $4 billion over seven years to help ensure access for First Nations children to health, social and educational services. Almost $400 million over two years will go to improve infrastructure on reserves, including $247 million for water and wastewater infrastructure. To address a key commitment on reconciliation, the budget sets aside $210 million to help communities document, locate and memorialize burial sites at former residential schools. The money also will help the National Centre for Truth and Reconciliation pay for a new building and assist with the “complete disclosure” of federal documents related to residential schools. The budget sets aside just over $5 million over five years to allow the RCMP to assist in community-led investigations into burial sites at former residential schools.

DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION

In line with the government’s diversity and inclusion agenda, the budget promises $100 million over five years for a federal LGBTQ2 action plan, $85 million more to support ongoing work on the anti-racism strategy and $50 million to support Black-led and Black-serving community organizations. It also commits $15 million to support local journalism in underserved communities and to help racialized and religious minority journalists present their experience and perspectives.

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Canada’s forest industry by the numbers

Forests are a major source of wealth for Canadians, providing a wide range of economic, social and environmental benefits.

In 2013, production in the forest sector contributed $19.8 billion—or 1.25%—to Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP). In a global context, Canada has the world’s largest forest product trade balance—C$19.3 billion (2013)—a position it has held for as long as trustworthy trade statistics have been compiled. While other countries may produce more of one product or another, no nation derives more net benefit from trade in forest products than Canada, and the gap between Canada and the second largest net trader (Sweden) has been expanding continuously since 2009.

There are three main forest industry subsectors:

Solid wood product manufacturing – Firms in this area engage in both primary (such as softwood lumber and structural panels) and secondary (such as millwork and engineered wood products) manufacturing for domestic consumption and export. This subsector accounted for approximately 44% of the forest sector’s contribution to the Canadian economy (as measured by real GDP) in 2013.

Pulp and paper product manufacturing – Companies in this area produce a wide range of products, covering everything from newsprint and household tissues to dissolving pulp for rayon production. This subsector accounted for approximately 36% of the contribution of the forest sector to the Canadian economy in 2013.

Forestry and logging – Firms in this area are responsible for field operations and harvesting of timber, including felling and hauling it to the mill. In 2013, this sector accounted for 20% of the forest sector’s contribution to the Canadian economy.

Graph data

Forest sector transformation

Forest product markets are cyclical, experiencing significant ups and downs over the economic cycle. This constant state of shifting circumstances creates both challenges and opportunities. In recent years, Canada’s forest industry has undergone an especially deep cyclical decline, coupled with structural changes in world markets. In particular, the rise of electronic media has resulted in deep decline for paper-based communications products—including several products (such as newsprint) that have traditionally been critical to the Canadian pulp and paper subsector.

In response to these challenges, the forest industry has begun to transform itself along four distinct lines: market development, operational efficiency, business process change and new product development. One of the most exciting elements of this transformation has been the new and innovative products, materials and services being produced in Canada’s forest sector. These include new building materials, biofuels that can substitute for fossil fuels, and biochemicals that can be used to produce bio-based pharmaceuticals, biodegradable plastics, personal care products and industrial chemicals. Chief among these are cellulosic fibrils and nano-crystalline cellulose—next-generation pulp-based products with the potential to revolutionize the pulp and paper sector.

These and other emerging technologies and business processes offer new ways of generating social, economic and environmental values for Canadians from our abundant forest resource. They generate value from a wider range of forest products and processes than traditional milling and pulping. Whether co-located with an existing establishment or a result of a greenfield investment, these new technologies and business processes increase overall industry productivity: additional revenue streams are available from each log harvested, diversifying product lines to stabilize economic performance and boosting the share of renewable products in the marketplace. These new technologies will also create opportunities for new entrants, enhancing competition and entrepreneurialism in the industry.Find out more

• Industry transformation
• Forest products and applications
• Forest bioeconomy, bioenergy and bioproducts
• Land reclamation and forest science
• Forest industry tools and research

About this site

Current lumber, pulp and panel prices

April 6, 2022

https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/domestic-and-international-markets/current-lumber-pulp-panel-prices/13309

WEST FRASER’S HINTON PULP TO REDUCE PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND MOVE TO UNBLEACHED KRAFT PULP

Tue, April 5, 2022, 5:15 p.m.·4 min read

VANCOUVER, BC, April 5, 2022 /CNW/ – West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (“West Fraser” or the “Company”) (TSX and NYSE: WFG) announced today that it will permanently reduce capacity at its pulp mill in Hinton, Alberta (“Hinton Pulp”) by the end of this year. One of Hinton Pulp’s two production lines will shut, and the remaining line will produce Unbleached Kraft Pulp (“UKP”) rather than Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (“NBSK”).

“Hinton Pulp has been in operation since 1956 and these changes are necessary to simplify our operation, reduce capital requirements and greenhouse gas emissions, and better align with consumer expectations,” said Ray Ferris, President & CEO, West Fraser.

The capacity reduction will see staffing levels transition from 345 positions to 270. West Fraser expects to mitigate the impact on employees through natural attrition, retirements and by offering employment opportunities at other West Fraser operations.

“Our Hinton Pulp team has been engaged in a comprehensive review process and I want to thank them for their creativity and commitment to the mill, our customers and the environment. We remain strongly committed to the community of Hinton, the future of the plant, and to our neighbouring lumber operation, Hinton Wood Products,” said Ferris.

The environmental benefits of moving to a single UKP production line include:

• an estimated 35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (“GHGs”), which is equivalent to taking approximately 19,900 cars off the road per year
• an estimated 25% reduction in water use, air emissions and waste generation, and
• elimination of chlorine dioxide emissions

As the world moves away from single-use plastics, UKP is now used increasingly in a wide variety of everyday items including cardboard packaging, grocery bags, fibre-cement board and specialty products.

Since late 2021, the mill has undertaken several product trials and received positive initial customer feedback as to the quality and strength of the pulp produced. Currently, mill employees are preparing for the transition after satisfying all existing customer commitments for NBSK.

It is anticipated that an impairment charge of approximately US$13 million will be recorded in West Fraser’s first quarter 2022 results associated with the write-down of equipment that will be decommissioned permanently as part of the transition to UKP.

About West Fraser

West Fraser is a diversified wood products company with more than 60 facilities in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe. From responsibly sourced and sustainably managed forest resources, the Company produces lumber, engineered wood products (OSB, LVL, MDF, plywood, and particleboard), pulp, newsprint, wood chips, other residuals, and renewable energy. West Fraser’s products are used in home construction, repair and remodelling, industrial applications, papers, tissue, and box materials. For more information about West Fraser, visit www.westfraser.com.

Chip shortage, rising gas prices and inflation hamper auto industry stocks

It has been a rough ride for auto industry investors in recent months: The global semiconductor chip shortage continues to constrain vehicle production and rising costs squeeze company margins, sending share prices in reverse.

Market watchers say higher gas prices and rising inflation are also expected to curb consumption of big-ticket discretionary items like cars and trucks, especially if global economic growth slows, which could happen if interest rates rise too quickly.

Demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is increasing, and more companies are making them. However, their higher price tag and the lack of charging infrastructure in North America are still hurdles for many consumers.

“This is a sector to be cautious on at this time,” says Brooke Thackray, a research analyst with Horizons ETFs (Canada) Inc. of Toronto.

Auto industry investors did have a good run coming out of the pandemic. For example, shares of car maker General Motors Co. and parts supplier Magna International Inc. were each trading above prepandemic levels by the end of 2020 – and both reached record highs in the spring of 2021, driven by increased demand.

Then the semiconductor chip shortage hit after the coronavirus pandemic drove up demand for cellphones, laptops and, later on, vehicles, forcing auto companies to cut production just as consumer demand was steadily recovering.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could create more problems for the sector. According to Reuters, Ukraine’s two leading suppliers of neon, which produce about half the world’s supply of the key ingredient for the lasers used to make chips, have halted their operations.

“[The chip shortage] has thrown a big wrench into the ability for the supply side to meet the elevated demand levels that are out there,” says Mike Archibald, vice-president and portfolio manager at AGF Investments.

He points to Toronto-based Magna, the largest Canadian-based auto stock, which posted sales of US$9.1-billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, a drop of 14 per cent from the same quarter of 2020. The company said global light vehicle production fell 17 per cent in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, “driven by the semiconductor chip shortages the industry has faced throughout 2021.”

Mr. Archibald has no current investments in the auto space, as concerns around chip shortages and production stops and starts led him to sell his holdings. He’s looking for evidence of recovering production levels before considering buying back into the sector.

“The short term is very uncertain for all of these companies,” he says, but he sees better days ahead for auto companies once production returns.

There’s also strong growth potential for the industry as it moves aggressively into EV production. In Canada, suppliers like Magna and Linamar Corp. are also gearing up their EV offerings.

“The tailwinds in that part of the market are there,” Mr. Archibald says, citing Tesla, the EV “poster child,” and the more traditional auto makers that are continuously rolling out EV models and have ambitious plans for EV fleets in the future.

Investors looking for Canadian-based auto industry stocks could look to aftermarket parts provider Uni-Select Inc., which Mr. Archibald has previously owned. The stock has done well amid the increased demand for used cars in recent months, as the supply of new cars was limited.

He also points to dealership company AutoCanada, which sells new and used cars, as an alternative for investors in the sector.

“The stock has come off,” alongside other car companies, he notes, as vehicle sales slow. “But if you want exposure to the auto segment, this is a way that you could get it directly.”

Mr. Thackray says investors looking to buy auto stocks outside of Canada could turn to the large auto manufacturers like GM and Ford Motor Co., both listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Another option is the First Trust Nasdaq Global Auto Index Fund (CARZ-Q), which is more of a technology play. CARZ’s top holdings include Tesla, chip maker Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. – the last two are working on autonomous vehicles.

Still, Mr. Thackray notes the exchange-traded fund (ETF) is small, with about US$70-million in assets. The ETF was down 3 per cent year-to-date, as of March 31, and returned 2 per cent over the past 12 months.

Overall, Mr. Thackray warns that the auto industry is cyclical and suggests investors tread carefully whether buying the new, innovative side or traditional auto makers.

Wes Ashton, co-founder, director of growth strategy and a portfolio manager at Harbourfront Wealth Management Inc. in Vancouver, says most investors who buy a U.S. index fund today own Tesla, given its US$1-trillion-plus market share.

Tesla recently announced a plan to increase its share count to enable a stock split to attract more investors. The highly cyclical stock currently trades at around US$1,000 and has traded between about US$545 and US$1,243 over the past year.

“What investors need to understand is that some of these EV stocks can be very volatile,” he says, citing the example of Tesla, a stock his firm owns for some clients.

“For a lot of clients, it’s fun making money when the stock rises,” he says, “but when the stock corrects, it’s not as pleasant. So you have to be more patient and diversify your overall approach.”

Mr. Ashton says he wouldn’t load up on these EV names, “but I think owning some forward-looking innovative stocks in the auto sector isn’t necessarily a bad thing because that’s where the industry is going.”