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  • Conservatives, NDP push Liberal government to take more action against inflation

    Conservatives, NDP push Liberal government to take more action against inflation

    Federal opposition parties are pressing the government to do more to curb inflation before Parliament rises for the summer, although there is considerable disagreement on whether to tackle cost-of-living challenges by cutting taxes or by raising them and redistributing the revenue.

    On Tuesday, the Conservatives used their final opposition day before the summer recess to introduce a motion calling on the government to freeze the goods and services tax on gasoline and diesel, suspend the carbon tax and lift tariffs on fertilizer imports, among other requests.

    “People don’t need a cheque from the government. They need taxes cut,” Interim Conservative Leader Candice Bergen said in a Tuesday news conference before debate on the motion. “The best way to provide relief for Canadians is to cut their taxes, not promise them a cheque might come in the mail.”

    The motion was scheduled for a vote late on Tuesday. The Liberals and the NDP, which when voting together have a majority in the Commons, spoke against the Conservative proposal.

    Meanwhile, the NDP reiterated its own proposal to tackle affordability by taxing “excess profits” large companies have earned during the COVID-19 pandemic and redistributing the revenue to low-income families through increases to the GST credit and Canada child benefit.

    The sharp rise in consumer prices, particularly for essentials such as food, gasoline and housing, has become a major political issue. Opposition parties have spent much of the past two Parliamentary sessions needling the government about inflation, which hit a three-decade-high annual rate of 6.8 per cent in April.

    Lumber prices are falling, but don’t expect prepandemic level markdowns for your next DIY project

    So far, opposition proposals to deal with it have made little headway.

    The Liberals have shrugged off efforts to pin soaring prices on them, arguing that inflation is a global phenomenon caused by pandemic-related disruptions in supply chains and, more recently, a commodity price shock due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Liberal ministers have also pointed to initiatives such as subsidized child care and an expansion of the Canada Workers Benefit, which goes to low-income earners, to argue that the government has been pro-active on cost-of-living issues.

    At the same time, the government has taken fewer steps to tackle price increases or offset rising costs than those of other advanced economies.

    In March, U.S. President Joe Biden ordered the release of strategic oil reserves. That is putting an additional million barrels of oil on the market every day for six months.

    Mr. Biden has said getting inflation under control is his economic priority, and over the past few months he has emphasized the importance of reducing the size of the U.S. federal government deficit as a means to do it. The Democratic administration is under considerable pressure to show it is serious about inflation control before the mid-term Congressional elections in the fall.

    Germany’s ruling coalition announced a €16-billion ($21.5-billion) inflation-relief package in March that includes measures such as cutting the tax on gasoline for three months by around 30 Euro cents per litre.

    European countries face an acute inflation shock, as sanctions against Russia have affected much of their oil and gas supply.

    When asked in question period on Tuesday why the Canadian government was not doing more to address rising fuel prices, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said the government was working with allies to stabilize international energy markets.

    “In this regard, we have committed to increasing oil and gas production by 300,000 barrels per day by the end of the year. At home, we’ve instructed the Competition Bureau to ensure there is no collusion around gas pricing,” Mr. Wilkinson said.

    The United Kingdom’s Conservative government has introduced a “windfall tax” on energy company profits similar to what the NDP has proposed.

    Starting at the end of May, energy companies operating in Britain face an additional 25-per-cent levy on earnings – although there are exemptions to encourage things such as increased investment. The U.K. government plans to direct these funds toward initiatives aimed at alleviating cost-of-living challenges.

    Canada’s Liberal government raised taxes on excess banking and insurance company profits in its April budget. This included a 1.5-per-cent bump to the corporate income tax on profits over $100-million, as well as a one-time tax of 15 per cent on bank and insurance company income above $1-billion for 2021.

    NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said on Tuesday that the government should expand on this initiative by taxing other large companies experiencing windfall profits, “particularly the big-box stores and oil and gas companies.”

    It is the responsibility of government to say, “If you’re making excess profits off the backs of people in a difficult time when people can’t afford to eat, then you have to start paying your fair share,” Mr. Singh said in a news conference.

    The main responsibility for reining in inflation lies with the Bank of Canada, which has begun aggressively raising interest rates to try to slow the economy and bring demand and supply back in line. The central bank has increased its policy interest rate at three consecutive rate decision meetings, to 1.5 per cent, and said that it may need to push the benchmark rate to 3 per cent or higher.

  • Before the Bell: June 6

    Before the Bell: June 6

    Equities

    Wall Street futures were higher early Monday after modest losses last week. European markets gained in morning trading. TSX futures were also up alongside positive global sentiment and advancing crude prices.

    Futures tied to the three key U.S. indexes were all in positive territory in the early premarket period with S&P and Nasdaq futures advancing by more than 1 per cent. All three posted another losing week last week with the Nasdaq and the S&P recording eight straight weeks of losses. The S&P/TSX Composite Index finished out the Friday session down 1.15 per cent. The index still managed its third straight weekly advance, adding 0.2 per cent on the week.

    This week, Wall Street will be awaiting the latest U.S. inflation figures on Friday. Those come ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and another expected rate increase.

    “As we look ahead to this week’s U.S. CPI numbers for May, the main worry for investors is that in their increasing urgency to contain upside risk in inflation, central banks tighten monetary policy too quickly and tip the global economy into recession,” Michael Hewson, chief market analyst with CMC Markets U.K., said.

    “It is becoming increasingly obvious from the tone of a number of Fed policymakers that a pause in the U.S. rate hiking cycle appears unlikely at the moment,” he said.

    In Canada, investors will get April international trade numbers on Tuesday followed by May jobs numbers at the end of the week.

    “Friday’s May employment report is expected to show a gain of 15,000 jobs, which would match April’s increase,” Alvin Tan, Asia FX strategist with RBC, said.

    “Employment growth has slowed dramatically in recent months as strong labour demand is tempered by a reduction in the number of workers available for hire as evidenced by April’s unemployment rate of 5.2 per cent – the lowest since at least 1976.”

    On the corporate side, Rogers Communications Inc. filed its response to the Competition Bureau’s attempt to block its merger with Shaw Communications on Friday after the close of markets. The Globe’s Alexandra Posadzki reports that Rogers says Canada’s Commissioner of Competition has taken an “unreasonable” position and has failed to demonstrate that Rogers’ $26-billion takeover attempt of Shaw Communications would substantially reduce competition in the wireless market.

    Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.92 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 1.26 per cent. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.06 per cent and 1.17 per cent, respectively.

    In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei finished 0.56-per-cent higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2.71 per cent on gains in tech shares.

    Commodities

    Crude prices were higher in early going after Saudi Arabia hiked costs for July crude sales despite an increase in OPEC+ production.

    The day range on Brent is US$119.63 to US$121.95. The range on West Texas Intermediate is US$118.96 to US$121. Brent gained 1.8 per cent on Friday while WTI rose 1.7 per cent.

    On Sunday, Saudi state oil producer Aramco said Saudi Arabia was raising the July official selling price for its Arab light crude to Asia by US$2.10 from June to a US$6.50 premium versus the average of the Oman and Dubai benchmarks, according to Reuters.

    That move came even as OPEC+ members agreed last week to increase output in July and August by 648,000 barrels per day, or 50 per cent more than planned.

    However, Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset management, said the initial bounce on the Saudi price hike was offset somewhat by reports that the U.S. may allow more Iranian oil onto global markets to lean against prices ahead of mid-term elections in November.

    In other commodities, gold prices edged higher helped by a modest pullback in the U.S. dollar.

    Spot gold was up 0.1 per cent at US$1,851.98 per ounce by early Monday morning, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.2 per cent to US$1,854.60.

    Currencies

    The Canadian dollar was higher, supported by positive risk sentiment and gains in crude prices, while its U.S. counterpart saw slight declines against a group of world currencies.

    The day range on the loonie is 79.35 US cents to 79.64 US cents.

    Traders will get Canadian trade numbers on Tuesday followed by the monthly labour force survey on Friday.

    On world markets, the U.S. dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a group of currencies, fell 0.1 per cent early Monday morning to 101.99, near its lowest since late April, according to figures from Reuters.

    The euro, meanwhile, was up 0.2 per cent against the greenback at US$1.074 ahead of the ECB rate decision later in the week. The European Central Bank isn’t expected to start raising rates until later in the summer.

    The yen was trading at 130.73 just off its two-decade low of 131.35 against the U.S. dollar, and at 140.3 close to its seven-year low of 140.36 versus the euro.

    The Australian dollar was steady at US$0.7218 on Monday ahead of a central bank policy decision later in the week.

    In bonds, the yield on the U.S. 10-year note was little changed at 2.957 per cent in the predawn period.

    More company news

    Starbucks Corp said Howard Schultz would remain the coffee chain’s interim chief executive officer until the end of the first quarter next year, as it looks for a permanent successor.

    Economic news

    China PMI and foreign reserves

  • Asia-Pacific stocks decline; private survey on Chinese services activity for May ahead

    Asia-Pacific stocks decline; private survey on Chinese services activity for May ahead

    • Asia-Pacific stocks declined in Monday morning trade.
    • China’s Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is set to be out at 9:45 a.m. HK/SIN on Monday.
    • Markets in South Korea are closed on Monday for a holiday.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/06/asia-markets-caixin-services-pmi-china-economy-currencies-oil.html

  • Economic Calendar: June 6

    Economic Calendar: June 6

    Monday June 6

    China PMI and foreign reserves

    ==

    Tuesday June 7

    Japan household spending

    Germany factory orders

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for April.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit (and revisions) for April.

    (10 a.m. ET) Canadian Ivey PMI for May.

    (3 p.m. ET) U.S. consumer credit for April.

    ==

    Wednesday June 8

    China aggregate yuan financing, new yuan loans, money supply and trade surplus

    Japan GDP, current account surplus and bank lending

    Euro zone GDP

    Germany industrial production

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale inventories for April.

    Earnings include: Dollarama Inc.; Transcontinental Inc.

    ==

    Thursday June 9

    Japan machine tool orders

    ECB Monetary Policy Meeting

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of June 4. Estimate is 210,000, up 10,000 from the previous week.

    (12 p.m. ET) U.S. flow of funds for Q1.

    (10:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada Financial Systems Review with press conference to follow.

    Earnings include: Enghouse Systems Ltd.; Nio Inc.; Saputo Inc.

    ===

    Friday June 10

    China CPI and PPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian employment for May. The Street is forecasting an increase of 0.1 per cent (or 10,000 jobs) from April with the unemployment rate remaining 5.2 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for May. The consensus estimate is a rise of 0.7 per cent from April and 8.2 per cent year-over-year.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. quarterly services survey for Q1.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June.

  • Norway oil and gas workers threaten strike, some crude output at risk

    Norway oil and gas workers threaten strike, some crude output at risk

    At least 647 Norwegian oil workers plan to strike from June 12 if state-brokered wage mediation fails, labour unions said on Friday, putting some crude output at risk of shutdown although gas may not be affected.

    Workers are seeking above-inflation pay increases and other changes to their contracts but have not released details of their demands.

    Members of the Industri Energi and Lederne unions plan strike action at 10 permanent offshore installations, including the Njord A, Valhall, Gudrun and several Oseberg platforms, as well as three mobile service units, the unions said.

    Lederne would initially involve 74 mostly senior offshore workers in a strike, likely hitting oil production at the Equinor-operated Gudrun, Oseberg South and Oseberg East platforms, the union said.

    Gas production should remain unaffected however, Lederne chief Audun Ingvartsen told Reuters.

    “We will try to avoid affecting gas production as we are mindful about the situation with gas supplies in Europe,” he said.

    “I hope we can find the best solution both for Norway and the oil companies, and at the same time give something back to the workers. I hope we can avoid a strike.”

    Lederne is negotiating on behalf of some 1,300 union members.

    Equinor did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Gudrun produced 45,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in 2021, Oseberg East 5,600 boed and Oseberg South 32,000 boed, official data shows, around two percent of Norway’s overall daily oil and gas output.

    The Industri Energi union meanwhile said it would initially seek to avoid hitting production altogether, even as 573 of its members could go on strike.

    “The first instance of a potential strike would only involve a limited number of members, but we can escalate if necessary,” Industri Energi’s chief negotiator Lill-Heidi Bakkerud said.

    Industri Energi is Norway’s biggest oil and gas union, negotiating on behalf of some 4,300 members.

    The Safe labour union, which will also take part in the June 10-11 mediation, has yet to outline its response.

  • US economy sees solid job growth in May as payrolls jump by 390,000

    US economy sees solid job growth in May as payrolls jump by 390,000

    The U.S. economy continued to see healthy job growth in May, indicating the labor market is still strong despite growing fears of a recession amid sky-high inflation and an increasingly aggressive Federal Reserve. 

    Employers added 390,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report released Friday, beating the 328,000 jobs forecast by Refinitiv economists. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, held steady at 3.6%, the lowest level since February 2020.

    Job gains were broad-based, with the biggest increases in the pandemic-battered leisure and hospitality industry (84,000), professional and business services (75,000) and transportation and warehousing (47,000).https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/9820374/embed

    “This does not look like a labor market about to tip into recession,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist at jobs review website Glassdoor. “Job gains were healthier than expected and the labor force participation rate ticked up. Despite concerns about a slowdown and even a recession, the labor market’s fundamentals look healthy.”

    Businesses are eager to onboard new employees and are raising wages in order to attract workers as they confront a labor shortage. There were roughly 11.4 million open jobs at the end of April – near a record high – while the number of Americans quitting their job is also well-above pre-pandemic levels.

    Millions of workers are seeing the largest pay gains in years, as companies compete with one another for a limited number of employees. Earnings rose 5.2% in May from the previous year, much higher than the pre-pandemic average of 3%. There are signs that growth could be moderating though, with earnings climbing just 0.3% on a monthly basis, slower than Refinitiv expected.

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economy-sees-healthy-job-creation-may-payrolls-grow

  • The close: Stocks rise, U.S. bond yields fall, as traders brace for employment data

    The close: Stocks rise, U.S. bond yields fall, as traders brace for employment data

    Global equity markets rose on Thursday after lower-than-expected private payrolls data stirred hopes that the American economy was likely cooling and the Federal Reserve might be persuaded to modify its aggressive stance on interest rates and inflation. The TSX rose solidly, led by gains in the materials, industrials and technology sectors, with a weaker greenback helping to send commodity prices higher.

    The ADP National Employment Report showed that private payrolls rose by 128,000 jobs in May, which was much lower than the consensus estimate of 300,000 jobs and suggested that demand for labor was starting to slow.

    If the private payrolls data is reaffirmed by the Labor Department’s more comprehensive jobs report on Friday, then the Fed would be unlikely to continue its pace of rate hikes, said Sandy Villere, portfolio manager at Villere & Co in New Orleans.

    “Essentially, bad news is good news and good news is bad news. That means the economy is maybe cooling a little bit and the Fed can maybe calm down on their hikes because that is essentially controlling everything right now,” Villere said.

    For now, though, U.S. rate expectations remained unchanged. The rate futures market has penciled in about 195 basis points of cumulative tightening in 2022 and a fed funds rate of 2.788% after the December Fed meeting.

    Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Thursday further added to the view that rates will continue to rise at a fast pace.

    “Right now it’s very hard to see the case for a pause,” she told CNBC. “We’ve still got a lot of work to do to get inflation down to our 2% target.”

    Brainard said she backs at least a couple more half percentage point interest rate hikes, with more on tap if price pressures fail to cool.

    The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 50 countries, was up 1%.

    On Wall Street, the S&P and the Dow reversed their earlier session losses and were trading higher, led by technology, consumer discretionary, communication services and financials.

    The S&P 500 gained 1.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.68%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose1.29%. Tesla, Nvidia and Meta Platforms each rose sharply, fueling gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

    Nearly all of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes climbed, led by consumer discretionary and communication services .

    The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 1.5%.

    Oil prices edged higher after U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected amid high demand for fuel and OPEC+ agreed to boost crude output to compensate for a drop in Russian production.

    Brent futures rose 1.32% to $117.83 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 1.5% to $117.

    The U.S. dollar eased across the board, ceding some of the ground gained in recent sessions as firmer risk sentiment prompted investors to reach for higher-yielding currencies.

    The dollar index fell 0.76%, with the euro up 0.91% to $1.0743.

    Gold prices rose over 1%, supported by a dip in the dollar and the U.S. private payrolls data. Spot gold rose 1.2% to $1,868.04 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures gained 1.24% to $1,866.10 an ounce.

  • Gold Rises On Inflation Worries

    Gold Rises On Inflation Worries

    Gold edged higher on Thursday as inflation and recession worries persist.

    Spot gold rose 0.4 percent to $1,854.22 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were up half a percent at $1,857.15.

    Eurozone producer price inflation accelerated further to a new record high in April, data released by Eurostat showed today.

    Producer prices advanced 37.2 percent on a yearly basis in April, faster than the 36.9 percent rise in March.

    The 99.2 percent increase in energy prices and 25.1 percent rise in intermediate goods prices pushed producer price inflation to a new record.

    Eurozone inflation accelerated to a new record of 8.1 percent in the year to May, data showed earlier this week.

    Traders looked ahead to the European Central Bank’s meeting next week, when the central bank is likely to offer additional clues on the pace and scale of interest rate hikes to fight inflation.

    The Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point – its third interest-rate increase this year in an effort to throttle skyrocketing inflation. The central bank also signaled that more hikes are on the way.

    Growth worries linger, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon urging investors to brace for an economic hurricane.

    Canada building permits for April, U.S. weekly jobless claims for the week ended May 28 and factory orders for April will be released in the New York session.

  • China central bank to step up policy implementation to support economy

    China central bank to step up policy implementation to support economy

    China’s central bank will strengthen the implementation of its prudent monetary policy and bring forward steps to support the economy, vice governor Pan Gonsheng said on Thursday.

    The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will use various policy tools to step up liquidity injections to keep liquidity in the economy reasonably ample, Pan told a news conference.

    The central bank aims to stabilize economic growth, employment and prices, Pan said, adding that financial institutions should maintain prudence in their operations and prevent risks.

    “We will continue to strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy and create a sound monetary and financial environment,” Pan said.

    China’s cabinet has announced a package of 33 measures covering fiscal, financial, investment and industrial policies to revive its pandemic-ravaged economy.

    China’s trade in goods is expected to maintain a reasonable surplus this year and the relatively stable investment returns in yuan assets will help attract foreign investment, Pan said.

    The central bank has pledged to step up support for the slowing economy, but analysts say the room to ease policy could be limited by worries about capital outflows, as the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates.

    China’s cabinet said on Wednesday that it will increase the credit quota for policy banks by 800 billion yuan ($120 billion) to enable them to support infrastructure construction, according to state TV.

    Premier Li Keqiang has vowed to achieve positive economic growth in the second quarter, although many private sector economists have penciled in a contraction.

    Zou Lan, head of the PBOC’s monetary policy department, told the briefing that the credit quota for policy banks will help improve their ability to finance infrastructure projects.

  • Saudi, OPEC may make up for Russian oil output loss as Biden visit looms

    Saudi, OPEC may make up for Russian oil output loss as Biden visit looms

    Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members may boost oil output to offset a drop in Russian production, a move that could take some pressure off surging global inflation and pave the way for an ice-breaking visit to Riyadh by U.S. President Joe Biden.

    Two OPEC+ sources said the group was working on making up for a drop in Russian oil output as Russia’s production has fallen by about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) as a result of Western sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

    One OPEC+ source familiar with the Russian position said Moscow could agree to other producers raising production to compensate for Russia’s lower output but not necessarily making up all the shortfall.

    “Ultimately, the compensation could be agreed,” the source said, but said a decision might not be taken at Thursday’s meeting of OPEC+, an alliance of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and others.

    However, a Gulf source in OPEC+ said a decision on the matter was “highly possible” at Thursday’s ministerial meeting.

    U.S. diplomats have been working for weeks on organising President Joe Biden’s first visit to Riyadh after two years of strained relations because of disagreements over human rights, the war in Yemen and U.S. weapons supplies to the kingdom.

    U.S. intelligence has accused Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MbS, of approving the 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a charge the prince denies. Biden has refused so far to deal with MbS as Saudi de-facto ruler.

    A source briefed on the matter said Washington wanted clarity on oil output plans by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates before a potential Biden visit for a summit with Gulf Arab leaders, including MbS, in Riyadh.

    LOW APPROVAL RATINGS

    “An impending Biden trip could apply pressure on Gulf OPEC producers to increase production,” said a Gulf source, who also declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

    Faced with low approval ratings before U.S. mid-term elections amid surging gasoline prices, Biden has pressed Saudi Arabia to pump more oil. Sources on both sides say MbS has refused to act until Biden is ready to deal directly with him.

    OPEC+ ministers hold online talks on Thursday when they had been widely expected to stick to an existing plan for a regular monthly increase of 432,000 bpd, mirroring previous meetings when they have spurned calls for bigger output hikes.

    But Western sanctions could reduce production from Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter, by as much as 2 million to 3 million bpd, according to a range of industry estimates.

    Russia was already producing below its OPEC+ target of 10.44 million bpd in April with output of running at about 9.3 million bpd.

    OPEC+ agreed to slash output by a record amount in 2020 when the pandemic hammered demand. The group has gradually wound down that deal, which expires in September. By then the group will have limited spare capacity to lift output further.

    Saudi Arabia is now producing 10.5 million bpd and has rarely tested sustained production levels above 11 million bpd.

    Alongside fellow Gulf state, the UAE, OPEC is estimated to have less than 2 million bpd of spare capacity.

    “There is not much spare oil in the market to replace potential lost barrels from Russia,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB bank.