Author: train2invest Admins

Justin Trudeau attacks Pierre Poilievre as irresponsible in speech to Liberal caucus

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau launched a forceful attack of Pierre Poilievre Monday, describing the new Conservative Leader as an irresponsible politician who promotes reckless economic ideas.

In his first public comments since Mr. Poilievre’s decisive Saturday night leadership victory, Mr. Trudeau laid out his criticisms in an outdoor speech to the national Liberal caucus, which is gathering in St. Andrews, New Brunswick, for three days of meetings ahead of Parliament’s return.

“What Canadians need is responsible leadership,” said Mr. Trudeau. “Buzzwords, dog whistles and careless attacks don’t add up to a plan for Canadians. Attacking the institutions that make our society fair, safe and free is not responsible leadership. Telling people they can opt out of inflation by investing their savings in volatile cryptocurrencies is not responsible leadership. By the way, anyone who followed that advice would have seen their life savings destroyed.”

Mr. Trudeau was referencing comments Mr. Poilievre made in March at a leadership campaign stop, where he said cryptocurrencies “let Canadians opt-out of inflation with the ability to opt-in to cryptocurrencies.”

The value of bitcoin, the most popular form of cryptocurrency, has dropped by more than 50 per cent since Mr. Poilievre made those comments.

Mr. Trudeau spoke after Mr. Poilievre made a public speech to the Conservative caucus in Ottawa in which he urged the Liberals to pledge not to raise taxes. The Prime Minister did not directly address that request and he did not take questions from reporters after his speech.

Mr. Trudeau congratulated Mr. Poilievre on his victory and said Liberals are open to working with other parties in Parliament.

“But this doesn’t mean that we’re not going to be calling out highly questionable, reckless economic ideas,” he said.

Liberal MPs have been meeting for informal chats with various cabinet ministers and in smaller groups such as regional caucuses, as well as the full national caucus.

The Liberal caucus gathering is taking place just days before the House of Commons resumes sitting after the summer recess. Various ministers this week have signalled that the government’s fall priorities will include affordability measures aimed at lower-income Canadians, gun-control legislation and a suite of bills dealing with new regulations for the internet in areas such as promoting Canadian content and curbing hate speech.

Even though the Liberals and the NDP voted earlier this year to extend hybrid sittings adopted due to the pandemic that allow MPs to participate virtually in House of Commons debates and votes, the full Liberal caucus meetings this week are occurring without virtual options. Previous Liberal caucus meetings during the COVID-19 pandemic have included virtual participation.

While speaking with reporters, Government House Leader Mark Holland was asked why his government supports the continuation of a virtual Commons while not offering that option for its own caucus meetings.

Mr. Holland said the House of Commons committee on procedure and House affairs will be holding a study in the fall to review the hybrid system to determine what changes should be made. He said he’ll be bringing forward his own recommendations.

The Official Opposition Conservatives have been very critical of the hybrid Parliament, saying it reduces accountability by allowing ministers to appear virtually in the House of Commons or as a committee witness.

“I spent a lot of time in opposition. I am incredibly sympathetic to making sure that the mechanisms of accountability are there,” said Mr. Holland. “Now that we’re in – what I hope – is moving out of this pandemic and moving to brighter, clearer days, let’s take an opportunity to reflect on what worked and what didn’t work in this experiment.”

Mr. Holland and other Liberal MPs delivered a common criticism of Mr. Poilievre’s political style, accusing him of proposing “simplistic” solutions to complex problems.

Thunder Bay-Rainy River MP Marcus Powlowski said he expects Mr. Poilievre’s support of the freedom convoy protests will limit his political appeal.

“I think a lot of Canadians are going to see him on the far right. I think a lot of his opinions are not, but he’s also catered to the far right – the kind of people that park their trucks in downtown Ottawa, the freedom convoy and that kind of people,” he said. “And I think the majority of Canadians, the many quiet Canadians, don’t agree with that.”

Dollarama Reports $193.5M Q2 Profit, Sales Up 18.2 Per Cent From Year Ago

 Dollarama Inc. reported a second-quarter profit of $193.5 million, up from $146.2 million in the same quarter last year, as sales rose 18.2 per cent.

The discount retailer says the profit amounted to 66 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended July 31 compared with a profit of 48 cents per diluted share a year ago.

Sales for the three-month period totalled $1.22 billion, up from $1.03 billion a year earlier.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, gained 13.2 per cent as the number of transactions rose 20.2 per cent, but the average transaction size fell 5.8 per cent.

In its outlook, Dollarama says it expects to continue to benefit from strong demand as shoppers look to deal with inflation.

The retailer raised its comparable store sales growth assumption for its 2023 financial year to a range of 6.5 to 7.5 per cent compared with earlier expectations for between 4.0 and 5.0 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2022.

Fed’s Waller sees ‘significant’ rate hike this month, backs data-dependent approach

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Friday made comments indicating he could back another 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase later this month.
• He further suggested the Fed get away from its practice of providing “forward guidance” on what its future path would be.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/09/feds-waller-sees-significant-rate-hike-this-month-backs-data-dependent-approach.html

U.S. only days away until an ‘absolute explosion’ on inflation, says pollster Frank Luntz

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/06/17/u-s-only-days-away-until-an-absolute-explosion-on-inflation-says-pollster-frank-luntz.html?&recirc=taboolainternal

Farmland Inc.

Robert Andjelic is Canada’s largest farmland owner. He sees huge potential for the agriculture sector — if Canada doesn’t mess up a once-in-a-century opportunity

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-farmland-ownership-canada-andjelic/

Economic Calendar: Sept 12 – Sept 16

Monday September 12

Chinese markets closed

Japan machine tool orders

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s National Balance Sheet and Financial Flow Accounts for Q2.

Earnings include: Oracle Corp.

—

Tuesday September 13

Germany CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian construction investment for July.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for August. The Street is projecting a year-over-year rise in inflation of 8.1 per cent, which is down from July’s 8.5 per cent.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. budget balance for August.

Earnings include: Evertz Technologies Ltd.

—

Wednesday September 14

Japan and Euro zone industrial production

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian manufacturing sales and new orders for July. The Street is projecting month-over-month declines of 1.0 per cent for both.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI Final Demand for August. Consensus is a slide of 0.1 per cent from July and up 8.8 per cent year-over-year.

Earnings include: BRP Inc.

—

Thursday September 15

Japan and Euro zone trade deficit

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian motor vehicle sales for July. Estimate is a year-over-year decline of 13.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Sept. 10. Estimate is 225,000, up 3,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for August. The Street expects a flat result month-over-month

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for August. Consensus is a decline of 1.3 per cent from July but up 7.7 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index for September.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September

(9 a.m. ET) Canadian existing home sales and average prices for August. Estimate is year-over-year declines of 26.0 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively.

(9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for August. Estimate is a year-over-year rise of 8.5 per cent.

(9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production for August. The consensus projection is a rise of 0.1 per cent from July with capacity utilization remaining 80.3 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for July. The Street expects an increase of 0.6 per cent from June.

Earnings include: Adobe Systems Inc.; Empire Company Ltd.

—

Friday September 16

China industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment

Euro zone CPI

(8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for August. The Street is forecasting an annualized rate decline of 3.8 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for July. Estimate is a drop of 0.1 per cent from June.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian international securities transactions for July.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September.

Imperial Signs Deal With U.S.-Based Air Products For Hydrogen

Imperial Oil says it has reached a deal with a U.S.-based industrial gas company to supply low-carbon hydrogen for its proposed renewable diesel complex near Edmonton.

The deal will see Pennsylvania-based Air Products, which is building a hydrogen facility near Edmonton, supply hydrogen via pipeline to Imperial’s Strathcona refinery.

The hydrogen will be used together with locally grown vegetable oils to produce low-carbon diesel fuel.

Air Products says it will increase its overall investment in its Edmonton hydrogen facility to $1.6 billion to support the Imperial contract.

It says its facility will produce 165 million cubic feet per day of hydrogen when it opens in 2024 and approximately half of that will go to Imperial.

Imperial says its renewable diesel complex will be the largest facility of its kind in Canada, producing more than one billion litres per year of low-carbon diesel fuel.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2022.

Bullish on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

In our previous report (Sept. 19, 2021 – $49.85) we identified the start of a new uptrend and provided targets of $54 and $59. Earlier this year, Alimentation Couche-Tard ATD-T +1.56%increase (Friday’s close $59.42) rose to a high of $59.60 to fulfill our targets (A).

The stock had a minor correction recently and found support near the 40-week Moving Average (40wMA) and the rising trend line (solid line – B). The subsequent rise to $60.66 signalled the continuation of the uptrend toward higher targets (C).

Behaviour indicators including the rising 40wMA and the rising trend line confirm the bullish status. There is good support near $54-55; only a sustained decline below $52-53 would be negative.

Point & Figure measurements provide targets of $64 and $69. Higher targets are visible.

Monica Rizk is the Senior Technical Analyst of the Phases & Cycles publication

Canada’s jobless rate jumps to 5.4% as hiring falls for third consecutive month

Canada’s unemployment rate shot up in August as the economy shed jobs for a third consecutive month, the latest sign of a chill spreading through the labour market.

Employment fell by 40,000 in August, taking total losses since May to 114,000, Statistics Canada said Friday in a report. The unemployment rate rose to 5.4 per cent from a record low of 4.9 per cent in July. Economists were expecting a far stronger month, with 15,000 jobs created and the jobless rate nudging up to 5 per cent.

Canada is experiencing an economic slowdown as the Bank of Canada aggressively raises interest rates to temper demand and rein in the largest inflation surge in decades. The shift appears to be taking the steam out of a labour market that, over the past year, has been characterized by tight conditions and robust demand for workers.

“Canada has now seen three consecutive months of job losses, something that hasn’t historically happened outside of a recession,” said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Securities, in a note to clients. “The deterioration in the job market appears to be occurring faster than anticipated.”

Even as supply chain problems ease, ‘Canadian-born’ inflation could stay stubbornly high

Despite the pullback, financial analysts say the Bank of Canada is likely to raise interest rates again at its next meeting, in October, part of its battle to curb inflation that is almost four times higher than its 2-per-cent target. Earlier this week, the central bank hiked its policy rate to 3.25 per cent from 2.5 per cent.

“This report shouldn’t cause the Bank of Canada to change course,” wrote James Orlando, senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, in a note to investors. “Wage growth has increased again and domestic demand-driven inflation is only continuing to rise.”

The job losses in August were largely concentrated among young people (15 to 24) and those approaching the traditional retirement age (55 to 64). Employment fell by 28,000 in the public sector, while the contraction was hefty in both educational services (50,000) and construction (28,000).

Even so, many companies are still struggling to find workers. Employment fell slightly in the accommodation and food services sector last month, and total employment in that industry was down 15 per cent – or 179,000 people – from its prepandemic level. At the same time, employers in hospitality were recruiting for more than 170,000 positions as of June.

There are indications, though, that demand is ebbing somewhat. As of late August, total job postings on Indeed Canada had dropped 8 per cent from their May peak but were still significantly higher than before the pandemic.

It’s “still a job market where opportunities for workers are plentiful,” said Brendon Bernard, senior economist at Indeed Canada, in an interview. “But the outlook is definitely more uncertain.”

The tight hiring conditions are reflected in wages, which are rising quickly. The average hourly wage rose 5.4 per cent in August from a year earlier, up from 5.2 per cent in June and July, although those figures lag the annual inflation rate of 7.6 per cent in July. The Bank of Canada monitors wages for signs they are driving up inflation and making its task of reining in consumer price growth more difficult.

“As labour demand eases from excessive levels, pressure on wages and prices – and therefore inflation – should also recede,” said Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, in a speech Thursday.

In Friday’s report, Statscan also found that more people are considering a change in jobs. Almost 12 per cent of permanent employees were planning to leave their jobs over the next year, about double the level in January. Among workers whose hourly wages were in the bottom 20 per cent, almost one in five were planning to leave their jobs.

If that materializes, it could further drive up wages. Job switchers in the U.S. are pocketing their largest pay raises in decades. In Canada, “hopefully it’s not a situation where people missed their shot” to change jobs, Mr. Bernard said.

Among economists, there is a boisterous debate about whether this period of rising interest rates and slowing economic growth will lead to sharply higher unemployment. One side, which includes prominent central bankers, argues that employers will take down help-wanted ads but largely spare workers from layoffs. The other side points to a well-worn trend: When job vacancies decline, there is a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate.

The current unemployment rate of 5.4 per cent is “still quite low by historical standards,” Mr. Bernard said. “Of course, it didn’t move in the right direction today. The concerns I have are more the road ahead rather than the state of conditions right now.”

Dollarama beats estimates and boosts sales forecast as affluent seek bargains

Dollarama Inc. on Friday raised its full-year same-store sales forecast after topping quarterly revenue estimates, helped by strong demand for its groceries and household essentials as more consumers turn to discount stores amid surging inflation.

Rising prices of goods ranging from edible oils to paper products and gas has been forcing Canadian consumers to trade down to cheaper items to ease the strain on their wallets, benefiting discount store chains such as Dollarama.

Montreal-based Dollarama, which typically sells everything from kitchen essentials to party supplies under $4, has also rolled out additional price points up to $5, which Wall Street analysts have said would cushion margins amid higher costs.

Dollarama’s U.S. counterpart Dollar General Corp also lifted its annual comparable sales forecast last month, with inflation pushing affluent U.S. shoppers to hunt for bargains as well.

The discount store operator said it now expects comparable store sales growth of 6.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent for fiscal 2023, up from the 4 per cent to 5 per cent range estimated previously.

The company’s sales rose 18.2 per cent to $1.22 billion in the second quarter, beating analysts’ average estimate of $1.19 billion, according to Refinitiv data.

Net income for the quarter ended July 31 rose to $193.5 million, or 66 cents per share, from $146.2 million, or 48 cents per share a year earlier.