Bullish on CGI Inc.

GIB-A-T -0.48%decrease (Wednesday’s close $118.57) rallied from $67.23 in March, 2020, to $116.88 in September, 2021, (A-B) and then had a correction to support near $100 (C). It stayed in a horizontal trading range mostly between $100 and $113 for about nine months (dashed lines). The recent rise above the 2021 high suggests the start of a new leg toward higher targets (D); a sustained rise above $120 would confirm the breakout.

Behaviour indicators including the rising 40-week Moving Average (40wMA) and the rising trendline confirm the bullish status. There is good support near $110; only a sustained decline below this level would be negative.

Point & Figure measurements provide targets of $130 and $145. The large trading range (dashed lines) supports higher targets.

Monica Rizk is the senior technical analyst of the Phases & Cycles publication (www.capitalightresearch.com). Chart source: www.decisionplus.com

Oil steadies after early decline as more rate hikes loom

Oil prices steadied on Thursday after early declines as the dollar firmed while the possibility of further increases to interest rates by central banks also heightened demand concerns.

Brent crude futures rose 14 cents, or 0.2 per cent, to $82.84 a barrel by 1055 GMT and U.S. crude futures added 1 cent to $77.29.

Gains in the dollar weighed on prices. A stronger dollar can weaken oil demand because it makes the commodity more expensive for those holding other currencies.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates further next year, even as the economy slips towards a possible recession.

“The oil price is under pressure today as the Fed’s hawkish guidance for its monetary policy sparked renewed concerns about economic growth, lifting the U.S. dollar and sending commodity prices down,” said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng.

Chinese economic data for November was “much lower than expected, further darkening the demand outlook,” Teng added.

The world’s second-biggest economy lost more momentum as factory output slowed and retail sales extended declines, both missing forecasts and clocking their worst readings in six months as COVID-19 cases surged.

Also weighing on oil prices, Canada’s TC Energy Corp said it is resuming operations in a section of its Keystone pipeline, a week after a leak of more than 14,000 barrels of oil in rural Kansas triggered the whole pipe’s shutdown.

Lending some support were projections from the International Energy Agency, which expects Chinese oil demand to recover next year after a contraction this year of 400,000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by more than 10 million barrels last week, the most since March 2021, the Energy Information Administration said.

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday reduced its oil price forecasts for 2023, citing a projected market surplus early next year as supply from Russia remains robust and China demand ramps up.

Bank of England hikes key rate by 50 basis points, will continue to respond ‘forcefully’ if needed

LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday hiked its main interest rate by 50 basis points and signaled that more tightening will be needed to rein in inflation.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 in favor of the half-percentage-point hike, which takes the bank rate to 3.5%. The rise marks a slowdown from November’s 75 basis point increase.

Having hit a 41-year high in October, the annual rise in the U.K. consumer price index slowed to 10.7% in November, new figures revealed Wednesday.

The slowdown mirrored signs across other major economies such as the U.S. and Germany that inflation may have peaked, though it remains uncomfortably high and well above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

The central bank is trying to drag inflation back toward its target while also remaining sensitive to a weakening economy beset by several unique domestic pressures as well as global headwinds.

This was borne out in the latest U.K. labor market data, published earlier this week, which showed an uptick in both unemployment and wage growth, while economic inactivity and long-term illness rates also remain historically high.

China’s retail sales shrink far more than expected, while industrial production disappoints

• Retail sales fell by 5.9% in November from a year ago, worse than expectations for a decline of 3.7%, according to analysts polled by Reuters.
• Industrial production grew by 2.2% in November from a year ago, missing Reuters’ forecast for a 3.6% increase.
• A day before the data release, China’s National Bureau of Statistics canceled its in-person press conference set for Thursday without explanation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/15/chinas-retail-sales-shrink-far-more-than-expected-while-industrial-production-disappoints.html

Fed raises interest rates half a point to highest level in 15 years

• The Federal Reserve continued its battle against inflation by raising its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 15 years.
• The Federal Open Market Committee voted to boost the overnight borrowing rate half a percentage point, taking it to a targeted range between 4.25% and 4.5%.
• Along with the increase came an indication that officials expect to keep rates higher through next year, with no reductions until 2024.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/14/fed-rate-decision-december-2022.html

Nuclear fusion just passed a major milestone: Generating more energy than used to create the reaction

• On Tuesday, the head of the Department of Energy and other federal scientific leaders announced that a fusion reaction they ran at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California achieved net energy, meaning the reaction generated more energy than was put in to initiate the reaction. It’s the first time humankind has achieved this landmark.
• Fusion is the way the sun makes energy, but generating energy with fusion here on earth has been beguiling scientists for decades.
• In recent years, private investors have put almost $5 billion into fusion startups as the increased urgency in addressing climate change has made clean energy solutions particularly attractive.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/nuclear-fusion-passes-major-milestone-net-energy.html

Consumer prices rose less than expected in November, up 7.1% from a year ago

• The consumer price index rose just 0.1% from the previous month, and increased 7.1% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%.
• Core CPI rose 0.2% on the month and 6% on an annual basis, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 6.1%.
• Stocks roared higher following the report as investors look for signs that runaway inflation is ebbing.
• Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings for workers rose 0.5% for the month, though they were still down 1.9% from a year ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/cpi-inflation-november-2022-.html

Tourmaline is the largest producer of gas in Canada. That is important because in a commodity business size is everything. Along with size comes scale, and that is the secret to not only being the biggest producer, but grinding cost out of the operation.

Another contrast between Tourmaline and their American counterparts is growth of the revenue basis QoQ and YoY. TRMLF’s exposure to the premium plays in the WCSB makes this possible.

Investors are often asked for patience in return of capital. TRMLF has adopted the fixed plus variable dividend policy that sends a big chunk of free cash back to shareholders. Growth to $1.00 per share on an annual basis is programmed to for 2023 for the fixed dividend. As you can see, the variable dividend forecast for next year is simply prodigious.

UK approves first coal mine in decades, sparking anger among environmentalists as energy costs soar

The United Kingdom this week approved its first new coal mine in 30 years, provoking anger among environmentalists who said the move is a step back for the country’s ambitions toward clean renewable energy. 

The decision on the mine in the Cumbria area of northwest England came hours after the Conservative-led government reversed a ban on building new onshore wind farms in Britain. That was viewed by some opponents as a cynical attempt to offset criticism of the mine decision.  

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/uk-approves-first-coal-mine-decades-sparking-anger-among-environmentalists-energy-costs-soar

US scientists make major breakthrough in ‘limitless, zero-carbon’ fusion energy: report

Scientists have been struggling since the 1950s to harness the fusion reaction that powers the sun. But no group has been able to produce more energy from the reaction than it consumes. 

Though developing fusion power stations at scale is still decades away, the breakthrough has significant implications as the world seeks to ween itself off of fossil fuels. Fusion reactions emit zero carbon and do not produce any long-lasting radioactive waste. Per The Times, a small cup of hydrogen fuel could potentially power a house for hundreds of years. 

“If this is confirmed, we are witnessing a moment of history,” said Dr Arthur Turrell, a plasma physicist, told the paper. “Scientists have struggled to show that fusion can release more energy than is put in since the 1950s, and the researchers at Lawrence Livermore seem to have finally and absolutely smashed this decades-old goal.” 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/us-scientists-make-major-breakthrough-limitless-zero-carbon-fusion-energy-report