Author: train2invest Admins

 Fri Mar 17, 2:39PM CDT

Apr nat-gas Friday sold off to a 3-week low and closed sharply lower.  Nat-gas prices fell on a milder U.S. weather outlook that would reduce heating demand for nat-gas.  The Commodity Weather Group said Friday that above-normal temperatures are expected for most of the southern and eastern states from March 22-28.  The warm winter weather has boosted U.S. nat-gas supplies, with EIA nat-gas inventories +23.7% above their 5-year average as of Mar 10, the most in over 6-1/2 years.

Lower-48 state dry gas production on Friday was 99.6 bcf (+6.2% y/y), moderately below the record high of 103.6 bcf posted on Oct 3, according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand Friday was 82.4 bcf/day, up +27% y/y, according to BNEF.  On Friday, LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals were 13.7 bcf, up +3.1% w/w.  On Mar 3, LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals rose to a record 14.1 bcf/day as nat-gas exports restarted from the Freeport LNG terminal as the terminal was reopened after being closed since last June because of an explosion.

Nat-gas prices have fallen sharply over the past three months and posted a 2-1/4 year nearest-futures low on Feb 22 as normally mild weather across the northern hemisphere erodes heating demand for nat-gas.  January was the sixth-warmest across the contiguous 48 U.S. states in data from 1895.  This winter’s warm temperatures have caused rising nat-gas inventories in Europe and the U.S.  Gas storage across Europe was 56% full as of Mar 13, far above the 5-year seasonal average of 36% for this time of year.  Also, U.S. nat-gas inventories were +23.7% above their 5-year average as of Mar 10, the most in more than 6-1/2 years.

A decline in U.S. electricity output is bearish for nat-gas demand from utility providers.  The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended Mar 11 fell -1.7% y/y to 73,813 GWh (gigawatt hours).  However, cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending Mar 11 rose +1.1% y/y to 4,102,283 GWh.

Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since it showed U.S. nat gas inventories fell -58 bcf, less than expectations of -61, and a much smaller draw than the 5-year average draw of -77 bcf for this time of year.  Nat-gas inventories are now +23.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, the most in over 6-1/2  years.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended Mar 17 rose +9 rigs to a 6-month high of 162 rigs, just below the 3-1/4 year high of 166 rigs posted in the week ended Sep 9.  Active rigs have more than doubled from the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
 

PUBLISHED THU, MAR 16

Oil prices took a dive on Friday, reversing early gains of more than $1 a barrel and falling by more than $3, as banking sector fears set crude on course for its biggest weekly decline in months.

Brent crude futures fell by $1.59, or 2.1%, to $73.11 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.43, or 2.1%, at $66.92.

At their session low, both benchmarks were down more than $3. Brent was on track for its biggest weekly fall since December at more than 10%, with WTI heading toward a loss of more than 11%, its biggest since last April.

“The underlying fundamentals aren’t as terrible as what is being priced in here, but there is concern the oil is not as safe a place as cash or gold,” said John Kilduff, Partner at Again Capital in New York.

Pressure this week followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank and trouble at Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank.

Prices recovered some ground on Friday after support measures from the European Central Bank and U.S. lenders, but dropped again when SVB Financial Group said it had filed for reorganization.

The drop in prices highlights “the continued fragile state of the market”, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Analysts still expect constrained global supply to support prices in the foreseeable future.

OPEC+ members attributed this week’s price weakness to financial drivers rather than any supply and demand imbalance, adding that they expected the market to stabilise.

WTI’s fall this week to less than $70 a barrel for the first time since December 2021 could spur the U.S. government to start refilling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, boosting demand.

And analysts expect China’s demand recovery to add price support, with U.S. crude exports to China in March heading towards their highest in nearly two and a half years.

Saudi Arabia and Russia in a meeting on Thursday affirmed their commitment to OPEC+’s decision last October to cut production targets by two million barrels per day until the end of 2023.

An OPEC+ monitoring panel is due to meet on Apr. 3.

 Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. says it earned US$737.4 million in its third quarter ended Jan. 29, down 1.2 per cent from a year earlier.

The Laval, Que.-based company says earnings per diluted share in the quarter were 73 cents, up from 70 cents a year earlier, while earnings for the financial year to date were up almost 10 per cent to US$2.2 billion.

Total revenues for the quarter were US$20 billion, up eight per cent from last year, with Canadian revenues of US$2.5 billion.

Alimentation Couche-Tard says the translation of foreign currencies into the U.S. dollar had a net negative impact of around US$28 million on net earnings.

President and CEO Brian Hannasch said all of the company’s markets continue to face inflationary conditions, but that customers have proven resilient.

Hannasch said healthy fuel margins are helping to offset the continued decline in volumes brought on by work-from-home trends and higher prices.

“We are excited by the progress we made expanding the network in both store count and services for our mobility customers,” he said in a release.

Couche-Tard says it has closed its previously announced acquisition of True Blue Car Wash LLC, which operates 65 express tunnel car wash sites in the U.S. that the company says are a “natural extension” of its car wash network.

The company has also announced plans to acquire 45 Big Red Stores in Arkansas.

And recently, Couche-Tard and Harnois Énergies announced they closed a deal that will see Couche-Tard buy the Atlantic Canada gas-station chain Wilsons. Harnois will acquire some of the chain’s sites to fulfil a condition set by the Competition Bureau.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 15, 2023.

The Canadian Press – Canadian Press – Thu Mar 16, 7:54AM CDT

LAVAL, Que. — Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. says it has signed a €3.1 billion deal to acquire more than 2,000 service stations from French oil giant TotalEnergies SE.

The Laval-based convenience store and gas station operator says the acquisition would include all of TotalEnergies’ retail assets in Germany and the Netherlands along with a 60 per cent controlling interest in its Belgium and Luxembourg entities.

The retail assets Couche-Tard will take over include 2,193 service stations. More than half are in Germany, but Couche-Tard will also own 566 in Belgium, 387 in Netherlands and 45 in Luxembourg.

Couche-Tard chief executive Brian Hannasch says his company was drawn to the deal because TotalEnergies has a customer-centric approach and the acquisition will allow his company to grow its presence in the European market.

The deal is subject to approvals from regulators and must go through an employee consultation process but is expected to close before the end of the year.

Couche-Tard tried to buy French grocer Carrefour SA in 2021, but decided to drop the bid, when the French government opposed the deal.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 16, 2023.

Published: 3/17/2023 5:37 PM ET

The Canadian market ended notably lower on Friday as concerns about turmoil in the financial sector weighed on sentiment.

Industrials, energy, consumer discretionary and financials shares were the prominent losers. Real estate and healthcare stocks too posted sharp losses.

Materials shares gained in strength, riding on firm metal prices.

The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index ended down 151.29 points or 0.77% at 19,387.72, about 90 points off the session’s low of 19,297.99. The index shed nearly 2% in the week.

Industrials shares Ats Corp (ATS.TO), Bombardier Inc (BBD.B.TO), Ballard Power (BLDP.TO), Canadian Pacific Railway (CP.TO), Tfi International (TFII.TO), Air Canada (AC.TO) and Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) lost 2.5 to 4%.

Among energy stocks, Precision Drilling Corp (PD.TO) ended nearly 6% down. Baytex Energy (BTE.TO), Paramount Resources (POU.TO), Vermillion Energy (VET.TO), Crescent Point Energy (CPG.TO), Enerplus Corp (ERF.TO), MEG Energy (MEG.TO) and Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) lost 2 to 5.1%.

Consumer discretionary stocks Brp Inc (DOO.TO) and Mty Food Group (MTY.TO) lost 4.9% and 4.2%, respectively. Linamar Corp (LNR.TO) drifted down 2.6%, and Magna International (MG.TO) ended lower by about 2.4%.

In the financials sector, Power Corp of Canada (POW.TO) ended 4.4% down. National Bank of Canada (NA.TO), Great-West Lifeco (GWO.TO), Onex Corp (ONEX.TO), Manulife Financial (MFC.TO), Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) and Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) lost 2 to 3.4%.

Cronos Group (CRON.TO), down 4.6%, was the biggest loser in the HealthCare Index. Bausch Health Companies (BHC.TO) ended 2.06% down, and Canopy Growth Corp (WEED.TO) ended lower by 1.4%.

Materials shares Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO.TO), Equinox Gold Corp (EQX.TO), Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.TO), K92 Mining Inc (KNT.TO), Kinross Gold Corp (K.TO), Silvercrest Metals Inc (SIL.TO) and Torex Gold Resources (TXG.TO) gained 7 to 10%.

On the economic front, data from Statistics Canada showed the Raw Materials Price Index for Canada dropped 5.2% year-on-year in February of 2023, the first decline since December 2020. The index rose 1.1% in January.

The Industrial producer inflation in Canada eased to an over two-year low of 1.4% in February 2023, down from a downwardly revised 5% in the prior month.

• The International Criminal Court announced Friday it has issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and an official at the center of an alleged scheme to forcibly deport thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia.
• Russia is not a member of the ICC and the court doesn’t conduct trials in absentia, so any charged officials would either have to be handed over by Moscow or arrested outside of Russia to face ICC proceedings.
• Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Russia next week for the first time since Moscow’s Ukraine invasion began, officials confirmed Friday. It comes as Western leaders have grown wary of the nations’ deepening partnership during the war.
• Two NATO members have granted Kyiv’s repeated requests for aircraft in order to shore up its air defense — Poland will transfer four and Slovakia will send 13 MiG-29 fighter jets.

Canadian home prices fell 0.3 per cent in February from January, as prices dropped in seven of the 11 major markets, Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price data showed on Friday.

The index, which tracks repeat sales of single-family homes in major Canadian markets, showed that the monthly decline – led by price drops in Toronto and Calgary – was smaller than the 1.1 per cent decrease recorded in January over December.

The prices – which are not seasonally adjusted – rose in four cities including Vancouver and Victoria, both in the western province of British Columbia.

Home prices fell by 4.7 per cent in February compared to February 2022, marking the second consecutive year-over-year decline, National Bank of Canada economist Daren King said in a statement.

The Teranet index tracks closings, so it typically lags realtor sales data by three to five months.

• The Federal Reserve likely will approve a quarter-percentage-point interest rate increase next week, according to market pricing and many Wall Street experts.
• A rate increase would come just over a week after the Fed other regulators rolled out an emergency lending facility to halt a crisis of confidence in the banking industry.
• “This might be one of those times where there’s a difference between what they should do and what I think they will do. They definitely should not tighten policy,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/17/fed-poised-to-approve-quarter-point-rate-hike-next-week-despite-market-turmoil.html

CNN — 

In the first day after it was unveiled, GPT-4 stunned many users in early tests and a company demo with its ability to draft lawsuits, pass standardized exams and build a working website from a hand-drawn sketch.

On Tuesday, OpenAI announced the next-generation version of the artificial intelligence technology that underpins its viral chatbot tool, ChatGPT. The more powerful GPT-4 promises to blow previous iterations out of the water, potentially changing the way we use the internet to work, play and create. But it could also add to challenging questions around how AI tools can upend professions, enable students to cheat, and shift our relationship with technology.

GPT-4 is an updated version of the company’s large language model, which is trained on vast amounts of online data to generate complex responses to user prompts. It is now available via a waitlist and has already made its way into some third-party products, including Microsoft’s new AI-powered Bing search engine. Some users with early access to the tool are sharing their experiences and highlighting some of its most compelling use cases.

Here’s a closer look at the potential of GPT-4:

Analyzing more than text

At its core, the biggest change to GPT-4 is its ability to work with photos that users upload.

One of the most jaw-dropping use cases so far came from an OpenAI video demo that showed how a drawing could be turned into a functional website within minutes. The demonstrator uploaded the picture into GPT-4 and then pasted the resulting code into a preview that showed how it could be a working website.

In its announcement, OpenAI also showed how GPT-4 was asked to explain a joke from a series of images — which featured a smartphone with the wrong charger — and described why it was funny. While it might sound straightforward, dissecting a joke is more complicated for artificial intelligence tools to pick up on because of needed context.

In another test, The New York Times showed GPT-4 a picture of the interior of a refrigerator and prompted it to come up with a meal based on the ingredients.

The photos feature isn’t live yet, but OpenAI is expected to roll it out in the upcoming weeks.

Coding made even easier

Some early GPT-4 users with very little to no prior coding knowledge have also used it to recreate iconic games such as Pong, Tetris or Snake after following step-by-step instructions provided by the tool on how to do so. Others have made their own original games. (GPT-4 can write code in all major programming languages, according to OpenAI.)

“The powerful language capabilities of GPT-4 will be used for everything from storyboarding, character creation to gaming content creation,” said Arun Chandrasekaran, an analyst at Gartner Research. “This could give rise to more independent gaming providers in the future. But beyond the game itself, GPT-4 and similar models can be used for creating marketing content around game previews, generating news articles and even moderating gaming discussion boards.”

Similar to gaming, GPT-4 could change the way people develop apps. One user on Twitter said they made a simple drawing app in minutes, while another claimed to have coded an app that recommends five new movies every day, along with providing trailers and details on where to watch them.

“Coding is like learning how to drive — as long as the beginner gets some guidance, anyone can code,” said Lian Jye Su, an analyst at ABI Research. “AI can be a good teacher.”

Although OpenAI said the update is “less capable” than humans in many real-world scenarios, it exhibits “human-level performance” on various professional and academic tests. The company said GPT-4 recently passed a simulated law school bar exam with a score around the top 10% of test takers. By contrast, the prior version, GPT-3.5, scored around the bottom 10%. The latest version also performed strongly on the LSAT, GRE, SATs and many AP exams, according to OpenAI.

In January, ChatGPT made headlines for its ability to pass prestigious graduate-level exams, such as one from University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, but not with particularly high marks. The company said it spent months using lessons from its testing program and ChatGPT to improve the system’s accuracy and ability to stay on topic.

Providing more precise responses

Compared to the prior version, GPT-4 is able to produce longer, more detailed and more reliable written responses, according to the company.

The latest version can now give responses up to 25,000 words, up from about 4,000 previously, and can provide detailed instructions for even the most unique scenarios, ranging from how to clean a piranha’s fish tank to extracting the DNA of a strawberry. One early user said it provided in-depth suggestions for pickup lines based on a question listed on a dating profile.

Streamlining work across various industries

Joshua Browder, CEO of legal services chatbot DoNotPay, said his company is already working on using the tool to generate “one click lawsuits” to sue robocallers, in an early indication of the vast potential for GPT-4 to change how people work across industries.

“Imagine receiving a call, clicking a button, [the] call is transcribed and 1,000 word lawsuit is generated. GPT-3.5 was not good enough, but GPT-4 handles the job extremely well,” Browder tweeted.

Meanwhile, Jake Kozloski, CEO of dating site Keeper, said his company is using the tool to better match its users.

According to Su at ABI Research, it’s possible we’ll also see major advancements in “connected car [dashboards], remote diagnosis in healthcare, and other AI applications that were previously not possible.”

A work in progress

Although the company has made vast improvements to its AI model, GPT-4 has similar limitations to previous versions. OpenAI said the technology lacks knowledge of events that occurred before its data set cuts off (September 2021) and does not learn from its experience. It can also make “simple reasoning errors” or be “overly gullible in accepting obvious false statements from a user,” and not double-check work, the company said.

Gartner’s Chandrasekaran said this is also reflective of many AI models today. “Let us not forget that these AI models aren’t perfect,” Chandrasekaran said. “They can produce inaccurate information from time to time and can be black-box in nature.”

For now, OpenAI said GPT-4 users should exercise caution and use “great care” particularly “in high-stakes contexts.”

PUBLISHED WED, MAR 15 20239:16 AM EDT

• Samsung Electronics said Wednesday it plans to invest 300 trillion Korean won ($228 billion) in a new semiconductor complex in South Korea.
• The move is part of a broader push by the South Korean government to boost its prowess in areas including chips, displays, batteries and electric vehicles.
• Samsung’s new facility will be part of a “semiconductor cluster” which the government says will be the largest in the world.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/samsung-to-spend-228-billion-on-the-worlds-largest-chip-facility.html